Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 14?
ActiveLiquidity $1,262·Volume $5·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart-money signal
What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:42Smart money exiting · $3,057 sold 24hcomputed 1h agoSmart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
98%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$4,370 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$720
72h +$8,750
Smart money entered92¢99¢at 07:42(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy8h agoResolvesin 4d(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$1,262
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $4,370 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Warning: wallets that backed "No" are now net selling it — followers usually exit when the wallets they follow do.
Note: only $4,370 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$720, +$8,750 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:42
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7h ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 99¢ | $240 |
| 7h ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 99¢ | $240 |
| 7h ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 99¢ | $990 |
| 7h ago | UdonsanTop | Sell | No | 99¢ | $990 |
| 8h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $450 |
| 9h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $3 |
| 9h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $3 |
| 9h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $96 |
| 9h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $96 |
| 9h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $107 |
| 9h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $174 |
| 9h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $107 |
| 9h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $174 |
| 9h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $404 |
| 9h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $404 |
| 10h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $122 |
| 10h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $122 |
| 11h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $729 |
| 11h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $729 |
| 16h ago | FulguratorMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 16h ago | FulguratorMid | Sell | Yes | 4.0¢ | $47 |
| 19h ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $8 |
| 19h ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $8 |
| 19h ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 5.1¢ | $18 |
| 19h ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 5.0¢ | $0 |
| 19h ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 5.1¢ | $18 |
| 19h ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $275 |
| 19h ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $295 |
| 19h ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $570 |
| 19h ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 7.0¢ | $5 |
| 19h ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 7.0¢ | $5 |
| 19h ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $1 |
| 19h ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 12¢ | $1 |
| 19h ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $411 |
| 19h ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $141 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $368 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $368 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $40 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $40 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 10¢ | $250 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $26 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $26 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $0 |