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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 14?

ActiveLiquidity $1,262·Volume $5·Ends Nov 15, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:42Smart money exiting · $3,057 sold 24hcomputed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
98%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$4,370 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$720
72h +$8,750
Smart money entered92¢99¢at 07:42(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy8h agoResolvesin 4d(Nov 15, 2026)Liquidity$1,262
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $4,370 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Warning: wallets that backed "No" are now net selling it — followers usually exit when the wallets they follow do.

Note: only $4,370 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$720, +$8,750 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:42
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
7h agoUdonsanTopSellNo99¢$240
7h agoUdonsanTopSellNo99¢$240
7h agoUdonsanTopSellNo99¢$990
7h agoUdonsanTopSellNo99¢$990
8h agononkenny90MidBuyNo99¢$450
9h agononkenny90MidBuyNo99¢$3
9h agononkenny90MidBuyNo99¢$3
9h agononkenny90MidBuyNo99¢$96
9h agononkenny90MidBuyNo99¢$96
9h agononkenny90MidBuyNo97¢$107
9h agononkenny90MidBuyNo97¢$174
9h agononkenny90MidBuyNo97¢$107
9h agononkenny90MidBuyNo97¢$174
9h agononkenny90MidBuyNo97¢$404
9h agononkenny90MidBuyNo97¢$404
10h agononkenny90MidBuyNo97¢$122
10h agononkenny90MidBuyNo97¢$122
11h agononkenny90MidBuyNo98¢$729
11h agononkenny90MidBuyNo98¢$729
16h agoFulguratorMidBuyNo96¢$5
16h agoFulguratorMidSellYes4.0¢$47
19h agoifyoulovemeTopSellYes5.0¢$8
19h agoifyoulovemeTopSellYes5.0¢$8
19h agoifyoulovemeTopSellYes5.1¢$18
19h agoifyoulovemeTopSellYes5.0¢$0
19h agoifyoulovemeTopSellYes5.1¢$18
19h agoxxNyxMidSellNo95¢$275
19h agoxxNyxMidSellNo95¢$295
19h agoxxNyxMidSellNo95¢$570
19h agoifyoulovemeTopSellYes7.0¢$5
19h agoifyoulovemeTopSellYes7.0¢$5
19h agoifyoulovemeTopSellYes12¢$1
19h agoifyoulovemeTopSellYes12¢$1
19h agoxxNyxMidBuyNo92¢$411
19h agoxxNyxMidBuyNo92¢$141
1d agononkenny90MidBuyNo94¢$368
1d agononkenny90MidBuyNo94¢$6
1d agononkenny90MidBuyNo94¢$368
1d agononkenny90MidBuyNo94¢$6
1d agohugecaulkMidBuyYes8.0¢$40
1d agohugecaulkMidBuyYes8.0¢$40
1d agoCarMidSellYes10¢$250
1d agohugecaulkMidBuyYes11¢$26
1d agohugecaulkMidBuyYes11¢$26
1d agohugecaulkMidBuyYes11¢$1
1d agohugecaulkMidBuyYes11¢$1
1d agohugecaulkMidBuyYes11¢$6
1d agohugecaulkMidBuyYes11¢$6
1d agohugecaulkMidBuyYes11¢$0
1d agohugecaulkMidBuyYes11¢$0