Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?
ActiveLiquidity $49.2K·Volume $370.9K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes26%No74%
Smart money leans
Yes
26% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
61%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
26%price26%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$567 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$218
72h +$390
Smart money entered27¢26¢at 02:33(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy21h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$49.2K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are somewhat betting on "Yes", with $567 riding on it.
The price of 26% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 27¢; the price was 26¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $567 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$218, +$390 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:33
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21h ago | 0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816Mid | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $244 |
| 1d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $142 |
| 1d ago | 0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816Mid | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $58 |
| 1d ago | 0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816Mid | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $58 |
| 1d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $142 |
| 1d ago | 0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816Mid | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $17 |
| 1d ago | 0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816Mid | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $29 |
| 1d ago | 0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816Mid | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $29 |
| 5d ago | congoterrierMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $100 |
| 1w ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | 101456Mid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $510 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 31¢ | $34 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $26 |