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wan123

ProbationPolymarket
0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b
Tracking since Nov 8, 2026 · bankroll $685.7K
Quality score
0
Newas of Nov 9, 2026
PnL 30d
-$205.7K
PnL 90d
-$121.7K
ROI 90d
-4%
on $3.2M deployed
Entry edge
47%
107 resolved markets
Volume 90d
$5.4M
5015 trades
Breadth 90d
198
distinct markets
Quality score — 90 days
Delayed 1h · as of 13:59
MarketOutcomeSizeAvg priceCurrentValuePnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No356.1K70¢74¢$263,361+$14.8K
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No133.6K63¢99¢$132,112+$48.1K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No86.1K41¢97¢$83,701+$48.1K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes278.3K9.7¢12¢$34,789+$7,748
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No24.6K71¢91¢$22,486+$5,128
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes65.3K37¢32¢$21,052-$3,354
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No50K40¢38¢$19,025-$975
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes539.9K11¢2.6¢$14,308-$45.5K
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes21.5K29¢62¢$13,347+$7,129
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes25.7K45¢47¢$12,075+$407
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No17.8K55¢65¢$11,681+$1,851
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes11.8K73¢97¢$11,449+$2,848
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes20.4K43¢45¢$9,252+$440
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Yes8.3K64¢95¢$7,820+$2,557
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?Yes4.8K87¢91¢$4,349+$161
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?No3.8K72¢92¢$3,444+$747
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Yes16.1K27¢15¢$2,500-$1,924
Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?Yes2.5K56¢93¢$2,331+$921
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes169.1K2.3¢1.3¢$2,283-$1,631
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes40.7K3.6¢5.5¢$2,257+$779
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes50K7.0¢3.1¢$1,575-$1,925
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No1.4K66¢98¢$1,394+$458
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?No1.4K49¢97¢$1,315+$646
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?Yes21K10¢4.6¢$968-$1,173
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes10.2K41¢8.5¢$863-$3,303
Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?No97369¢87¢$851+$180
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?Yes828.175¢83¢$683+$59
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No9.7K23¢6.7¢$651-$1,631
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?No590.281¢97¢$574+$93
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?No563.573¢98¢$554+$143
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Yes10K22¢4.5¢$450-$1,750
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?No404.970¢82¢$330+$47
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes14.3K23¢2.1¢$307-$2,986
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No15.5K16¢1.8¢$286-$2,226
Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?Yes921.826¢23¢$217-$19
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Yes9.4K9.0¢2.2¢$207-$640
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes1.9K47¢9.6¢$186-$714
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?Yes6.1K9.1¢2.9¢$181-$377
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yes22.8K20¢0.6¢$148-$4,532
Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?No1.7K10¢8.8¢$147-$21
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Yes999.322¢14¢$145-$74
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?Yes270.724¢32¢$88+$22
Will Jared Goff win the 2026 NFL MVP?Yes3.2K2.0¢1.3¢$41-$22
Will Control Resonant win Best Audio Design at the 2026 Game Awards?Yes567.411¢6.0¢$34-$26
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes21.6K0.3¢0.1¢$32-$35
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No477.946¢6.0¢$29-$191
Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?No2565¢75¢$19+$2
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes9.1K4.2¢0.0¢$5-$378
Patriots vs. BearsPatriots33.3K41¢0.0¢$0-$13.7K
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-10.5)Northern Iowa Panthers20K51¢0.0¢$0-$10.2K
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?Yes8.8K5.9¢0.0¢$0-$516
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?Yes120.9K36¢0.0¢$0-$43.1K
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?Yes452.440¢0.0¢$0-$181
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats: O/U 147.5Under9.4K53¢0.0¢$0-$4,997
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Yes5.9K20¢0.0¢$0-$1,167
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?Yes4.2K5.2¢0.0¢$0-$216
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?No34.255¢0.0¢$0-$19
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes46.5K0.2¢0.0¢$0-$75
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red RaidersAkron Zips49.8K27¢0.0¢$0-$13.5K
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes5.5K12¢0.0¢$0-$659
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?No1K51¢0.0¢$0-$519
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Yes100K14¢0.0¢$0-$14.0K
Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Pistons2.4K28¢0.0¢$0-$668
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?No74.9K3.9¢0.0¢$0-$2,954
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes40.5K9.5¢0.0¢$0-$3,840
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Yes743.2K4.9¢0.0¢$0-$36.2K
Raiders vs. JetsJets50K54¢0.0¢$0-$27.0K
Steelers vs. BuccaneersBuccaneers44.4K45¢0.0¢$0-$20.0K
Rockets vs. LakersRockets47.9K47¢0.0¢$0-$22.5K
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Yes33.4K12¢0.0¢$0-$3,974
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Yes42.5K3.0¢0.0¢$0-$1,297
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?Yes25.7K23¢0.0¢$0-$5,952
Timberwolves vs. NuggetsTimberwolves149.1K19¢0.0¢$0-$28.0K
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?No57.7K26¢0.0¢$0-$15.1K
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Yes5.1K15¢0.0¢$0-$757
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 5% and 10.00%?No1K32¢0.0¢$0-$320
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Yes17.2K37¢0.0¢$0-$6,342
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Yes79.3K31¢0.0¢$0-$24.8K
Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-9.5)Northern Iowa Panthers22K45¢0.0¢$0-$9,999
Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?Yes2.2K11¢0.0¢$0-$243
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?Yes4.9K14¢0.0¢$0-$717
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?Yes42.7K1.8¢0.0¢$0-$766
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Yes3.1K37¢0.0¢$0-$1,156
Knicks vs. 76ers76ers72K32¢0.0¢$0-$23.3K
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?Yes103K11¢0.0¢$0-$11.3K
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes46.5K0.2¢0.0¢$0-$75
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?Yes56826¢0.0¢$0-$148
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?No169.9K9.4¢0.0¢$0-$16.0K
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?Yes1.1K5.3¢0.0¢$0-$58
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Yes14.3K32¢0.0¢$0-$4,613
Buccaneers vs. BearsBuccaneers66.7K29¢0.0¢$0-$19.3K
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Yes9.2K9.8¢0.0¢$0-$907
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?Yes3.2K46¢0.0¢$0-$1,492
Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers37.6K23¢0.0¢$0-$8,559
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?Yes11.3K4.3¢0.0¢$0-$489
Seahawks vs. CommandersSeahawks34.3K61¢0.0¢$0-$20.8K
Knicks vs. CavaliersCavaliers50K36¢0.0¢$0-$18.0K
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska CornhuskersVanderbilt Commodores63.6K24¢0.0¢$0-$15.3K
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Yes2K22¢0.0¢$0-$431
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Yes5.6K8.7¢0.0¢$0-$485
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?Yes20K31¢0.0¢$0-$6,220
Will the State of the Union be 130 minutes or longer?Yes63.5K14¢0.0¢$0-$8,620
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Yes430.2K16¢0.0¢$0-$66.8K
Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5)Hofstra Pride30K49¢0.0¢$0-$14.7K
Pistons vs. MagicPistons49.2K45¢0.0¢$0-$22.0K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes614.9K9.2¢0.0¢$0-$56.3K
Steelers vs. SaintsSaints33.3K38¢0.0¢$0-$12.7K
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Yes77.7K5.7¢0.0¢$0-$4,445
Packers vs. LionsPackers35K39¢0.0¢$0-$13.6K
Colts vs. ChiefsColts70K29¢0.0¢$0-$20.3K
Hawks vs. KnicksHawks66.6K29¢0.0¢$0-$19.0K
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Yes11.6K6.9¢0.0¢$0-$808
Dolphins vs. 49ersDolphins100K11¢0.0¢$0-$11.0K
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?No15.4K19¢0.0¢$0-$2,876
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes46.5K0.2¢0.0¢$0-$75
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?No36.7K15¢0.0¢$0-$5,516
Cowboys vs. EaglesEagles76.7K35¢0.0¢$0-$27.1K
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?No39.4K26¢0.0¢$0-$10.3K
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No74.8K30¢0.0¢$0-$22.1K
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes20.4K12¢0.0¢$0-$2,360
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes70.9K52¢0.0¢$0-$37.0K
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Yes1.1K12¢0.0¢$0-$126
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O/U 150.5Over26.3K45¢0.0¢$0-$11.9K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?Yes24.1K9.0¢0.0¢$0-$2,173
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?No14.5K5.5¢0.0¢$0-$793
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?No102.7K50¢0.0¢$0-$51.3K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Yes71.3K7.0¢0.0¢$0-$4,992
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?Yes23.9K4.3¢0.0¢$0-$1,036
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?Yes49.6K1.2¢0.0¢$0-$595
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes33.9K2.2¢0.0¢$0-$739
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State BuckeyesOhio State Buckeyes49.8K58¢0.0¢$0-$29.0K
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Yes2.2K3.1¢0.0¢$0-$69
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Yandex50K30¢0.0¢$0-$15.0K
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?Yes41.6K9.2¢0.0¢$0-$3,844
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Yes59.7K11¢0.0¢$0-$6,526
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes65.3K39¢0.0¢$0-$25.3K
Thunder vs. SpursThunder62.3K28¢0.0¢$0-$17.6K
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Yes1.1K7.7¢0.0¢$0-$81
Chargers vs. ChiefsChargers100K22¢0.0¢$0-$22.0K
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Yes27.2K31¢0.0¢$0-$8,339
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?No5.5K8.2¢0.0¢$0-$449
Trail Blazers vs. SpursTrail Blazers58.5K15¢0.0¢$0-$9,000
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes46.5K0.2¢0.0¢$0-$75
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No5.9K39¢0.0¢$0-$2,282
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Yes2.5K8.0¢0.0¢$0-$201
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson TideHofstra Pride84.8K15¢0.0¢$0-$12.7K
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes31.7K0.2¢0.0¢$0-$51
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes2.1K0.2¢0.0¢$0-$3
Timberwolves vs. SpursTimberwolves50K8.0¢0.0¢$0-$4,000
Lions vs. Bills: O/U 54.5Under50K50¢0.0¢$0-$25.0K
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?Yes13K7.2¢0.0¢$0-$944
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder5.9K26¢0.0¢$0-$1,532
Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?Yes1.3K45¢0.0¢$0-$572
Chargers vs. SeahawksChargers71.1K25¢0.0¢$0-$17.8K
Bengals vs. SteelersBengals3.2K43¢0.0¢$0-$1,397
Spread: Bills (-7.5)Chargers50K51¢0.0¢$0-$25.5K
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?No21.7K84¢0.0¢$0-$18.2K
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Yes2.4K9.4¢0.0¢$0-$228
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-15.5)Hawaii Rainbow Warriors10K50¢0.0¢$0-$5,012
Packers vs. JetsJets35.6K39¢0.0¢$0-$13.9K
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?Yes10K14¢0.0¢$0-$1,379
Texans vs. ColtsTexans55.3K41¢0.0¢$0-$22.7K
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?Yes114.6K6.8¢0.0¢$0-$7,826
Cowboys vs. TexansTexans50K58¢0.0¢$0-$29.0K
Lions vs. BillsLions72.2K31¢0.0¢$0-$22.4K
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Yes70.8K9.4¢0.0¢$0-$6,693
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?No31.3K6.8¢0.0¢$0-$2,114
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Yes6.6K3.3¢0.0¢$0-$221
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Yes356.3K21¢0.0¢$0-$74.9K
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No79.6K65¢0.0¢$0-$51.4K
Colts vs. VikingsColts98.7K23¢0.0¢$0-$22.9K
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?No203.9K5.3¢0.0¢$0-$10.9K
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?No41.9K22¢0.0¢$0-$9,146
Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-12.5)Troy Trojans35K47¢0.0¢$0-$16.4K
Spread: Steelers (-2.5)Steelers40K54¢0.0¢$0-$21.6K
Penn State vs. NorthwesternPenn State25.6K35¢0.0¢$0-$8,944
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Yes7.4K10¢0.0¢$0-$735
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?Yes43.2K9.3¢0.0¢$0-$4,040
Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)Dolphins50K55¢0.0¢$0-$27.5K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?Yes45.1K5.4¢0.0¢$0-$2,454
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Yes1.6K86¢0.0¢$0-$1,378
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?Yes10K3.9¢0.0¢$0-$390
Spread: Saints (-3.5)Saints50K48¢0.0¢$0-$24.0K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?No100K12¢0.0¢$0-$12.0K
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes4.6K2.7¢0.0¢$0-$124
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Yes15K15¢0.0¢$0-$2,251
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?Yes385.2K19¢0.0¢$0-$73.0K
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Yes11.6K1.2¢0.0¢$0-$142
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?Yes665.90.4¢0.0¢$0-$3
Spread: Chiefs (-9.5)Jets50K51¢0.0¢$0-$25.5K
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Yes10.4K31¢0.0¢$0-$3,247
Bears vs. SeahawksSeahawks33.3K42¢0.0¢$0-$14.0K
Will Trump say "Obama" during the State of the Union address?No20K16¢0.0¢$0-$3,200
Ravens vs. ColtsColts50K41¢0.0¢$0-$20.5K
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?Yes2.3K8.0¢0.0¢$0-$182
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?Yes270.9K8.9¢0.0¢$0-$24.3K
Chiefs vs. BroncosChiefs50K53¢0.0¢$0-$26.5K
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes63.7K30¢0.0¢$0-$19.0K
Bengals vs. TexansTexans43.3K59¢0.0¢$0-$25.6K
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026?Yes2K10¢0.0¢$0-$206
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?Yes4.8K22¢0.0¢$0-$1,053
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes871.7K16¢0.0¢$0-$136.0K
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State CyclonesKentucky Wildcats49.8K33¢0.0¢$0-$16.5K
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?No56.7K31¢0.0¢$0-$17.8K
Broncos vs. CardinalsCardinals70K33¢0.0¢$0-$22.9K
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Yes16.7K8.9¢0.0¢$0-$1,481
Spurs vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves145.5K14¢0.0¢$0-$20.5K
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?No11.9K6.6¢0.0¢$0-$786
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes10.7K28¢0.0¢$0-$3,005
Jets vs. BearsJets50K37¢0.0¢$0-$18.5K
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Yes7.2K2.9¢0.0¢$0-$206
Vikings vs. BuccaneersBuccaneers70K48¢0.0¢$0-$33.7K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Yes276K3.6¢0.0¢$0-$9,948
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes324.2K45¢0.0¢$0-$146.8K
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?Yes1K9.6¢0.0¢$0-$97
76ers vs. Knicks76ers89.1K23¢0.0¢$0-$20.4K
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Yes162.8K12¢0.0¢$0-$20.2K
Bears vs. FalconsFalcons49.9K17¢0.0¢$0-$8,688
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes31.5K1.5¢0.0¢$0-$473
Heat vs. HornetsHeat97.9K32¢0.0¢$0-$31.0K
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Yes287.526¢0.0¢$0-$75
Broncos vs. ChargersChargers48.5K42¢0.0¢$0-$20.4K
Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?Yes537.716¢0.0¢$0-$88
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Yes2.1K51¢0.0¢$0-$1,071
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?Yes1.4K11¢0.0¢$0-$151
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Yes2.4K27¢0.0¢$0-$663
Cavaliers vs. KnicksCavaliers165.1K6.6¢0.0¢$0-$10.9K
Cavaliers vs. PistonsPistons44K17¢0.0¢$0-$7,473
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?Yes47.8K0.2¢0.0¢$0-$96
Spurs vs. ThunderSpurs44.1K7.3¢0.0¢$0-$3,211
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Yes4.5K50¢0.0¢$0-$2,213
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes936.5K0.7¢0.0¢$0-$6,131
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red StormNorthern Iowa Panthers84.8K18¢0.0¢$0-$15.3K
Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28?Yes4.9K13¢0.0¢$0-$658
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?Yes25.3K19¢0.0¢$0-$4,794
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?Yes131.6K9.8¢0.0¢$0-$13.0K
Magic vs. 76ersMagic49.3K51¢0.0¢$0-$25.0K
Packers vs. BuccaneersBuccaneers50K41¢0.0¢$0-$20.5K
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Yes552.4K23¢0.0¢$0-$128.6K
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Yes7.8K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$110
Bengals vs. DolphinsDolphins100K25¢0.0¢$0-$25.0K
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?Yes3.6K16¢0.0¢$0-$574
Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Rockets49.8K52¢0.0¢$0-$26.0K
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No245.6K44¢0.0¢$0-$106.9K
Titans vs. BengalsTitans33.1K14¢0.0¢$0-$4,640
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?Yes9.8K8.5¢0.0¢$0-$834
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes20K7.8¢0.0¢$0-$1,551
Seahawks vs. BroncosSeahawks50K26¢0.0¢$0-$13.0K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Yes76.3K3.2¢0.0¢$0-$2,412
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes46.5K0.2¢0.0¢$0-$75
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?No2K50¢0.0¢$0-$983
Commanders vs. 49ersCommanders100K22¢0.0¢$0-$22.0K
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?Yes2.4K48¢0.0¢$0-$1,137
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?Yes23.515¢0.0¢$0-$4
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?Yes125.40.8¢0.0¢$0-$1
Cowboys vs. PackersCowboys126.4K23¢0.0¢$0-$29.2K
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Yes6.8K12¢0.0¢$0-$786
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes36.2K10¢0.0¢$0-$3,706
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 18, 2026?Yes1.9K2.9¢0.0¢$0-$56
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?Yes55.7K3.9¢0.0¢$0-$2,171
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Yes43K9.9¢0.0¢$0-$4,258
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Yes134.1K34¢0.0¢$0-$46.0K
Giants vs. EaglesEagles55.6K42¢0.0¢$0-$23.3K
76ers vs. KnicksKnicks22.2K33¢0.0¢$0-$7,333
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Yes23.3K28¢0.0¢$0-$6,622
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?No98.5K5.5¢0.0¢$0-$5,421
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?Yes2.5K29¢0.0¢$0-$712
Celtics vs. PistonsCeltics31.8K53¢0.0¢$0-$16.8K
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28?Yes240.57.5¢0.0¢$0-$18
Thunder vs. LakersLakers50K25¢0.0¢$0-$12.5K
Cavaliers vs. 76ersCavaliers36.7K44¢0.0¢$0-$16.2K
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?No1.3K15¢0.0¢$0-$199
Falcons vs. SteelersFalcons50K28¢0.0¢$0-$14.0K
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?No150.6K20¢0.0¢$0-$29.9K
Thunder vs. SpursThunder187.9K23¢0.0¢$0-$42.8K
Will Trump visit China by March 31?Yes124K4.5¢0.0¢$0-$5,584
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Yes1.5K34¢0.0¢$0-$499
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Yes50.3K23¢0.0¢$0-$11.8K
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by March 31?Yes1.4K7.9¢0.0¢$0-$108
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Yes5.1K18¢0.0¢$0-$939
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Yes56K5.4¢0.0¢$0-$3,013
Lions vs. PanthersLions70.7K40¢0.0¢$0-$28.4K
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky WildcatsSanta Clara Broncos33.1K42¢0.0¢$0-$13.9K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes2.5M16¢0.0¢$0-$397.0K
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes56.47.2¢0.0¢$0-$4
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?No2.7K49¢0.0¢$0-$1,323
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Yes987.5K12¢0.0¢$0-$115.9K
Pistons vs. CavaliersPistons112.8K25¢0.0¢$0-$28.4K
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Yes69.4K8.3¢0.0¢$0-$5,752
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas JayhawksKansas Jayhawks39.8K39¢0.0¢$0-$15.6K
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Yes2.5K9.7¢0.0¢$0-$241
Jets vs. PatriotsJets50K25¢0.0¢$0-$12.5K
Buccaneers vs. PanthersPanthers49.1K19¢0.0¢$0-$9,338
Rams vs. BroncosRams50K54¢0.0¢$0-$27.0K
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes95.2K14¢0.0¢$0-$12.9K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?Yes2.8K9.5¢0.0¢$0-$266
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia CavaliersVirginia Cavaliers29.9K49¢0.0¢$0-$14.7K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes324.8K21¢0.0¢$0-$66.8K
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Yes3K8.0¢0.0¢$0-$238
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?No2.3K6.4¢0.0¢$0-$147
Lions vs. Dolphins: O/U 50.5Over9.6K50¢0.0¢$0-$4,788
Timberwolves vs. SpursTimberwolves85.7K17¢0.0¢$0-$14.6K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Yes47.2K16¢0.0¢$0-$7,523
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes732K16¢0.0¢$0-$119.1K
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Liquid65.6K38¢0.0¢$0-$24.9K
Eagles vs. TitansTitans70K25¢0.0¢$0-$17.5K
Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?No26.1K38¢0.0¢$0-$10.0K
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?No3.7K3.3¢0.0¢$0-$122
Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?Yes4.2K48¢0.0¢$0-$2,032
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville CardinalsSouth Florida Bulls49.8K35¢0.0¢$0-$17.5K
Warriors vs. LakersWarriors31.1K39¢0.0¢$0-$12.1K
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?Yes4.5K26¢0.0¢$0-$1,171
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?Yes109.3K6.2¢0.0¢$0-$6,815
Dolphins vs. VikingsDolphins188.6K18¢0.0¢$0-$34.4K
Patriots vs. SeahawksPatriots40K52¢0.0¢$0-$20.8K
Panthers vs. EaglesEagles50K40¢0.0¢$0-$20.0K
Commanders vs. EaglesCommanders5.7K32¢0.0¢$0-$1,815
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?No771.139¢0.0¢$0-$304
Eagles vs. CommandersEagles71.1K30¢0.0¢$0-$21.3K
Warriors vs. SunsWarriors34.4K45¢0.0¢$0-$15.4K
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut HuskiesUCLA Bruins49.8K36¢0.0¢$0-$18.0K
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01?Yes768.2¢0.0¢$0-$6
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?No7.4K16¢0.0¢$0-$1,181
Bills vs. RaidersRaiders50K33¢0.0¢$0-$16.5K
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?No8.4K4.8¢0.0¢$0-$402
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes5.6K2.9¢0.0¢$0-$162
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?Yes29.9K24¢0.0¢$0-$7,146
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Yes309.4K13¢0.0¢$0-$40.9K
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?Yes878.811¢0.0¢$0-$94
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?No149.9K31¢0.0¢$0-$45.8K
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes46.5K0.2¢0.0¢$0-$75
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes213.3K0.9¢0.0¢$0-$1,893
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes20K54¢0.0¢$0-$10.8K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes93K18¢0.0¢$0-$17.1K
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?Yes2.5K27¢0.0¢$0-$664
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?Yes44K6.2¢0.0¢$0-$2,715
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Yes86.7K7.3¢0.0¢$0-$6,334
Spread: Saint Mary's Gaels (-3.5)Saint Mary's Gaels35K49¢0.0¢$0-$17.1K
Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary?No2.2K7.4¢0.0¢$0-$161
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Yes11.6K5.0¢0.0¢$0-$574
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?Yes14K18¢0.0¢$0-$2,480
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Yes8.2K28¢0.0¢$0-$2,290
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?Yes580.632¢0.0¢$0-$186
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?No4.3K65¢0.0¢$0-$2,800
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Yes14.1K16¢0.0¢$0-$2,199
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?Yes8.6K29¢0.0¢$0-$2,469
Vikings vs. SaintsSaints83K13¢0.0¢$0-$10.8K
Will Trump visit China by May 31?No2.5K19¢0.0¢$0-$472
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?No15.9K11¢0.0¢$0-$1,745
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?No97.1K9.9¢0.0¢$0-$9,638
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?Yes46.5K30¢0.0¢$0-$14.1K
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Yes8.3K0.5¢0.0¢$0-$43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Yes43.5K2.9¢0.0¢$0-$1,245
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?Yes5K43¢0.0¢$0-$2,151
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?No4.4K3.1¢0.0¢$0-$137
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?Yes77.8K13¢0.0¢$0-$10.2K
Chargers vs. BillsChargers120K25¢0.0¢$0-$30.0K
76ers vs. CelticsCeltics22.1K40¢0.0¢$0-$8,836
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?Yes5.9K9.8¢0.0¢$0-$582
Golden Knights vs. AvalancheAvalanche4.3K17¢0.0¢$0-$745
Spread: Pistons (-14.5)Pistons35.4K21¢0.0¢$0-$7,427
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes697.4K3.0¢0.0¢$0-$21.2K
Thunder vs. LakersLakers105.7K12¢0.0¢$0-$12.6K
49ers vs. SeahawksSeahawks50K29¢0.0¢$0-$14.5K
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes7.3K12¢0.0¢$0-$886
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes562.4K11¢0.0¢$0-$59.2K
US forces enter Iran by December 31?No52.7K34¢0.0¢$0-$18.2K