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ProbationPolymarket
0xe0dbdb7f005f233f4510e4ef7e53a2f76a8df44e
Tracking since Nov 8, 2026 · bankroll $139.2K
Quality score
0
Newas of Nov 9, 2026
PnL 30d
-$9,615
PnL 90d
-$18.1K
ROI 90d
-3%
on $674.6K deployed
Entry edge
50%
209 resolved markets
Volume 90d
$2.0M
6304 trades
Breadth 90d
603
distinct markets
Quality score — 90 days
Delayed 1h · as of 16:44
MarketOutcomeSizeAvg priceCurrentValuePnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No29.2K88¢90¢$26,467+$824
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?Yes12K86¢90¢$10,800+$511
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No11.3K87¢88¢$9,986+$107
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No10K90¢91¢$9,050+$50
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No10K90¢87¢$8,750-$250
No one announced as next James Bond?No8.5K83¢94¢$8,012+$944
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No8.6K81¢84¢$7,164+$214
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?No8K74¢79¢$6,282+$419
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?No5K96¢95¢$4,763-$38
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?No4.6K93¢96¢$4,380+$149
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes100K1.3¢3.7¢$3,750+$2,450
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No5K80¢74¢$3,712-$270
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?No10K34¢31¢$3,100-$300
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No5K66¢61¢$3,073-$208
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yes3K77¢99¢$2,981+$677
Grizzlies vs. RaptorsRaptors6.4K47¢47¢$2,968-$32
Another Canada election called by December 31, 2026?No2.5K91¢96¢$2,390+$131
Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?No2.2K91¢96¢$2,141+$121
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No2.1K85¢98¢$2,035+$271
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes40K4.9¢4.6¢$1,860-$100
Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?No1.5K92¢95¢$1,435+$42
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?Yes1.5K55¢86¢$1,297+$472
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes61.8K1.0¢2.0¢$1,267+$649
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?No6K74¢19¢$1,143-$3,291
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes10K3.8¢9.2¢$925+$545
Dalton Kincaid: Anytime TouchdownNo1K77¢76¢$760-$7
Will Bryan Johnson dunk before 2027?No807.677¢85¢$682+$61
Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock out from the Senate in 2026?No532.489¢98¢$520+$47
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?No515.876¢96¢$495+$101
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?No493.476¢99¢$488+$113
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?No501.596¢97¢$486+$7
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?No510.690¢95¢$485+$25
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People in the US of 2026?No485.593¢96¢$465+$14
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?No493.276¢90¢$444+$69
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes451.374¢97¢$437+$105
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes25K2.5¢1.6¢$412-$215
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes20K2.0¢1.9¢$380-$20
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes60.4K1.4¢0.6¢$363-$468
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes7.5K2.6¢4.0¢$304+$109
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes12.3K1.8¢2.4¢$301+$78
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes10.4K16¢2.6¢$274-$1,346
Will You Can See Everything win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes1.5K3.8¢18¢$264+$207
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?No25073¢100¢$250+$67
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes15K7.0¢1.5¢$232-$817
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the final round of the 2026 Maine Senate election by 6%-9%?Yes30014¢66¢$197+$155
Will Caleb Williams win the 2026 NFL MVP?Yes4.7K4.5¢4.0¢$192-$21
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?Yes19093¢95¢$181+$4
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?No174.868¢99¢$174+$55
Will the Republican Party hold below 170 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No163.690¢99¢$162+$16
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?No10078¢88¢$88+$10
Josh Allen: Anytime TouchdownNo166.948¢48¢$81+$1
Jordan Mason: Anytime TouchdownNo10070¢71¢$71+$1
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?Yes486.522¢12¢$60-$49
Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026?No54.796¢98¢$53+$1
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes3K3.5¢1.7¢$52-$52
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?Yes30017¢15¢$44-$7
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?No2.5K23¢0.4¢$11-$567
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?No9.595¢96¢$9+$0
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?Yes13.739¢19¢$3-$3
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?Yes2K22¢0.0¢$1-$439
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?Yes29027¢0.2¢$1-$77
Rams vs. CommandersCommanders9K33¢0.0¢$0-$2,970
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)T16K33¢0.0¢$0-$1,980
Spread: Bears (-6.5)Bears6K48¢0.0¢$0-$2,880
Raiders vs. 49ersRaiders15K20¢0.0¢$0-$3,000
Charlotte vs. UABCharlotte11.5K26¢0.0¢$0-$3,000
Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over966.933¢0.0¢$0-$319
Spread: Jets (-6.5)Jets2K7.8¢0.0¢$0-$158
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Aston Villa FC O/U 1.5Under5.2K58¢0.0¢$0-$2,990
Spread: Jets (-9.5)Jets1K5.7¢0.0¢$0-$59
Texas State vs. Oregon StateOregon State4.5K65¢0.0¢$0-$2,954
Spread: Spurs (-17.5)Spurs5.9K51¢0.0¢$0-$3,000
Spread: Bears (-13.5)Bears10K29¢0.0¢$0-$2,900
Spread: Jets (-2.5)Jets18K17¢0.0¢$0-$3,151
Spread: Cowboys (-9.5)Cowboys8.5K35¢0.0¢$0-$2,975
Pelicans vs. ClippersPelicans5.7K53¢0.0¢$0-$3,000
Spread: Giants (-9.5)Giants10K31¢0.0¢$0-$3,050
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-11-07?No4.5K66¢0.0¢$0-$3,000
Spread: Saints (-6.5)Saints7.5K40¢0.0¢$0-$3,000
Spread: 76ers (-9.5)76ers6.1K49¢0.0¢$0-$3,000
Javonte Williams: Anytime TouchdownNo1.1K37¢0.0¢$0-$389
Cowboys vs. ColtsColts13.4K77¢0.0¢$0-$10.3K