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Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

ActiveLiquidity $186.0K·Volume $3.1M·Ends Apr 19, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 11:41computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
2% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
2%price2%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$397 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$104
Smart money entered2.6¢2.1¢at 11:41(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 159d(Apr 19, 2027)Liquidity$186.0K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $397 riding on it.

The price of 2% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 2.6¢; the price was 2.1¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $397 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$104 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 11:41
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d agoYouSayUpISayDownMidSellYes1.6¢$2
1d agoYouSayUpISayDownMidSellYes1.6¢$2
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$2
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$2
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$2
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$2
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$2
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$2
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$2
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$2
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$2
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$1
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$1
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$1
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$2
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$2
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$2
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$2
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$2
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$0
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$1
1d ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes1.7¢$1