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JJo

ProbationPolymarket
0xc4086b708cd3a50880b7069add1a1a80000f4675
Tracking since Nov 8, 2026 · bankroll $267.4K
Quality score
0
Newas of Nov 9, 2026
PnL 30d
+$44.9K
PnL 90d
+$44.1K
ROI 90d
+3%
on $1.4M deployed
Entry edge
51%
59 resolved markets
Volume 90d
$5.3M
5666 trades
Breadth 90d
193
distinct markets
Quality score — 90 days
Delayed 1h · as of 14:09
MarketOutcomeSizeAvg priceCurrentValuePnL
Iran leadership change by December 31?No54.1K92¢92¢$50,016+$186
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Yes46.7K97¢98¢$45,867+$539
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No50K50¢82¢$41,225+$16.2K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No25.5K96¢96¢$24,424-$63
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No20.2K39¢75¢$15,136+$7,270
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes15.7K85¢93¢$14,648+$1,233
Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026?No16.2K89¢89¢$14,410-$20
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes12.7K94¢98¢$12,391+$541
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes50K50¢18¢$8,775-$16.2K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No9.1K89¢91¢$8,324+$221
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?No7.7K88¢98¢$7,533+$786
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No5K99¢99¢$4,945+$20
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No2.6K92¢98¢$2,558+$157
Discord IPO before 2027?No2.1K96¢97¢$2,050+$26
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?No2K94¢99¢$1,978+$104
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?No2K83¢85¢$1,690+$30
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes3.5K41¢47¢$1,637+$212
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No1.7K86¢85¢$1,441-$22
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?No1.4K83¢87¢$1,212+$49
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?Yes1.2K81¢90¢$1,109+$111
Weed rescheduled by December 31?No1K87¢90¢$902+$31
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?No1.5K47¢48¢$716+$11
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes793.234¢73¢$577+$306
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes1.5K42¢33¢$507-$122
Will the National Party win fewer than 25 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?No491.9100¢100¢$492+$0
Will Democrats sweep the Kansas Senate and Governor elections?Yes50099¢98¢$491-$7
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes1.2K39¢39¢$482+$5
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?No441.794¢98¢$432+$19
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes18.5K0.4¢1.8¢$342+$274
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by December 31, 2026?No187.486¢88¢$166+$5
Will the Mississippi 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Yes147.897¢100¢$147+$3
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?No299.845¢46¢$139+$3
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?Yes686.627¢18¢$127-$61
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes16.6K0.8¢0.7¢$124-$0
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes126.392¢98¢$124+$8
Will Democrats win exactly 6 House seats in Arizona in the 2026 midterm elections?No125.390¢96¢$120+$7
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 22 or 23 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?No110100¢97¢$107-$3
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes16.6K0.8¢0.5¢$91-$34
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?Yes73.964¢67¢$50+$3
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?Yes514.431¢8.5¢$44-$116
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes16.6K0.8¢0.1¢$25-$100
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No12.494¢99¢$12+$1
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes16.6K0.8¢0.0¢$8-$117
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes16.6K0.8¢0.0¢$8-$117
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes16.6K0.8¢0.0¢$8-$117
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes16.6K0.8¢0.0¢$8-$117
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes16.6K0.8¢0.0¢$8-$117
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes16.6K0.8¢0.0¢$8-$117
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes16.6K0.8¢0.0¢$8-$117
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes16.6K0.8¢0.0¢$8-$117
Will James Fishback win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes16.6K0.8¢0.0¢$8-$117
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes16.6K0.8¢0.0¢$8-$117
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 46 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes1.9K0.2¢0.4¢$8+$4
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Yes287.50.2¢1.2¢$3+$3
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes4.2K0.8¢0.0¢$2-$30
Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?No80.50.2¢1.5¢$1+$1
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes790.30.8¢0.0¢$0-$6
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes0.150¢32¢$0-$0
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes0.20.7¢0.3¢$0-$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Yes10K74¢0.0¢$0-$7,400
Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31?Yes671.45.3¢0.0¢$0-$35
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-10 House seat?No524¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will the Republican Party win the MI-10 House seat?Yes659.424¢0.0¢$0-$158
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes604.734¢0.0¢$0-$206
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?Yes273.932¢0.0¢$0-$88
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?Yes7500.1¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?No2.8K70¢0.0¢$0-$1,969
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?No85.61.0¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Dario Amodei by October 31, 2026?Yes158.20.1¢0.0¢$0-$0