Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zealand?
ActiveLiquidity $33.1K·Volume $43.1K·Ends Nov 8, 2026
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$10.1K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered90¢98¢at 07:31(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3d agoResolvesended(Nov 8, 2026)Liquidity$33.1K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $10.1K riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 90¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:31
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $71 |
| 4d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $20 |
| 4d ago | whigTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $865 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $845 |
| 4d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $7 |
| 6d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $31 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $23 |
| 4w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $569 |
| 4w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $767 |
| 6w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $1,615 |
| 7w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $6 |
| 12w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $273 |
| 12w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $1,253 |
| 12w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $1,154 |
| 13w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $274 |