Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
ActiveLiquidity $26.3K·Volume $114.2K·Ends Nov 8, 2026
Price now:Yes14%No87%
Smart money leans
No
87% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
65%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
87%price87%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$6,033 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered61¢87¢at 11:52(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3d agoResolvesended(Nov 8, 2026)Liquidity$26.3K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are somewhat betting on "No", with $6,033 riding on it.
The price of 87% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 61¢; the price was 87¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:52
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 14¢ | $11 |
| 6h ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $4 |
| 6h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $197 |
| 6h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 10¢ | $112 |
| 6h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $197 |
| 6h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 10¢ | $112 |
| 9h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 9h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 9h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 9h ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 9.0¢ | $27 |
| 3d ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $80 |
| 3d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | Yes | 15¢ | $5 |
| 3d ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 21¢ | $10 |
| 3d ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 20¢ | $200 |
| 3d ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 21¢ | $62 |
| 3d ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $13 |
| 3d ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $162 |
| 3d ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $13 |
| 3d ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $22 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $1 |
| 3d ago | whigTop | Sell | Yes | 13¢ | $42 |
| 4d ago | SunlineTickerMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $8 |
| 4d ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $142 |
| 4d ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $420 |
| 4d ago | flawfenceMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $676 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 18¢ | $144 |
| 4d ago | flawfenceMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $129 |
| 4d ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $339 |
| 4d ago | kekkoneMid | Sell | Yes | 38¢ | $56 |
| 4d ago | kekkoneMid | Buy | Yes | 47¢ | $24 |
| 4d ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 51¢ | $79 |
| 4d ago | kekkoneMid | Buy | Yes | 51¢ | $51 |
| 4d ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 49¢ | $40 |
| 4d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | No | 49¢ | $20 |
| 4d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | No | 49¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 51¢ | $719 |
| 4d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Buy | No | 49¢ | $25 |
| 4d ago | mrworldwideTop | Sell | No | 56¢ | $164 |
| 4d ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 55¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 55¢ | $100 |
| 4d ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 55¢ | $4 |
| 4d ago | clazzy1Mid | Buy | No | 62¢ | $186 |
| 4d ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $250 |
| 4d ago | clazzy1Mid | Sell | No | 63¢ | $298 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 69¢ | $345 |
| 4d ago | ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGMid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $25 |
| 4d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 74¢ | $222 |
| 4d ago | clazzy1Mid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $17 |
| 4d ago | flawfenceMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $1 |