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Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $19.7K·Volume $103.2K·Ends Jan 1, 2028
Price now:Yes68%No33%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 06:30computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
68% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
53%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
68%price67%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,607 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered66¢68¢at 06:30Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3w agoResolvesin 416d(Jan 1, 2028)Liquidity$19.7K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are narrowly leaning toward betting on "Yes", with $1,607 riding on it.

The price of 68% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 66¢; the price was 68¢ at this snapshot.

Note: only $1,607 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Delayed 1h · as of 06:30
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1w agoOptimus-MidSellYes69¢$3,248
2w agoOptimus-MidSellYes74¢$68
2w agoMeckyMidBuyNo34¢$170
2w agoMeckyMidBuyNo36¢$60
3w agoFulguratorMidSellYes70¢$350
3w agoFulguratorMidBuyYes66¢$1,906
3w agoOptimus-MidSellYes66¢$1,063
3w agoOptimus-MidBuyYes63¢$467
3w agoOptimus-MidBuyYes63¢$13
3w agoOptimus-MidBuyYes63¢$25
3w agoOptimus-MidBuyYes63¢$55
3w agoOptimus-MidBuyYes63¢$8
3w agoOptimus-MidBuyYes63¢$63
5w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidSellNo44¢$116
5w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidSellNo44¢$16
5w agoOptimus-MidBuyYes56¢$97
5w agoMeckyMidBuyNo42¢$859
5w agoOptimus-MidBuyYes56¢$28
5w agoOptimus-MidBuyYes56¢$117
5w agoOptimus-MidBuyYes59¢$24
5w agoMeckyMidBuyNo40¢$123
5w agoMeckyMidBuyNo38¢$17
5w agoMeckyMidBuyNo38¢$26
5w agoMeckyMidBuyNo38¢$389
5w agoOptimus-MidSellNo38¢$328
7w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidBuyNo33¢$13
7w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidBuyNo33¢$1
7w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidBuyNo33¢$11
7w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidBuyNo33¢$4
7w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidBuyNo33¢$50
7w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidBuyNo33¢$2
7w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidBuyNo33¢$20
7w agoOptimus-MidBuyYes64¢$1,116
8w agoOptimus-MidBuyNo20¢$83
8w agoOptimus-MidBuyNo30¢$146
8w agoOptimus-MidBuyYes58¢$1,017
8w agoOptimus-MidBuyYes52¢$815
12w agoJesetradingTopBuyYes55¢$34