Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
ActiveLiquidity $26.7K·Volume $50.9K·Ends Nov 8, 2026
Price now:Yes98%No2%
Smart money leans
Yes
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$9,357 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$148
Smart money entered98¢99¢at 17:13(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 8, 2026)Liquidity$26.7K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $9,357 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $9,357 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$148 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 17:13
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $5 |
| 3d ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $142 |
| 3d ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $1,382 |
| 3d ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $38 |
| 3d ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $435 |
| 3d ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $11 |
| 3d ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $57 |
| 3d ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $59 |
| 3d ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $71 |
| 4d ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $2,821 |
| 4d ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $4,321 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Sell | Yes | 98¢ | $4,309 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Sell | Yes | 98¢ | $196 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Sell | Yes | 98¢ | $256 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Sell | Yes | 98¢ | $39 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Sell | Yes | 98¢ | $118 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Sell | Yes | 98¢ | $55 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Sell | Yes | 98¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 36¢ | $11 |
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 36¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 36¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | viniiTop | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $54 |
| 4d ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 23¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 60¢ | $126 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 60¢ | $58 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 60¢ | $131 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 60¢ | $27 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 60¢ | $18 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 17¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $31 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $2,776 |
| 2w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 56¢ | $56 |
| 5w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 51¢ | $26 |
| 5w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 35¢ | $1 |
| 5w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $78 |
| 5w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 35¢ | $26 |