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Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

ActiveLiquidity $26.7K·Volume $50.9K·Ends Nov 8, 2026
Price now:Yes98%No2%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 17:13computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$9,357 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$148
Smart money entered98¢99¢at 17:13(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 8, 2026)Liquidity$26.7K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $9,357 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $9,357 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$148 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 17:13
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
2d ago0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319MidBuyYes98¢$5
3d ago0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319MidBuyYes98¢$142
3d ago0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319MidBuyYes98¢$1,382
3d ago0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319MidBuyYes98¢$38
3d ago0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319MidBuyYes98¢$435
3d ago0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319MidBuyYes98¢$11
3d ago0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319MidBuyYes98¢$57
3d ago0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319MidBuyYes98¢$59
3d ago0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319MidBuyYes98¢$71
4d ago0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319MidBuyYes99¢$2,821
4d ago0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319MidBuyYes98¢$4,321
4d ago1walrusMidSellYes98¢$4,309
4d ago1walrusMidSellYes98¢$196
4d ago1walrusMidSellYes98¢$256
4d ago1walrusMidSellYes98¢$39
4d ago1walrusMidSellYes98¢$118
4d ago1walrusMidSellYes98¢$55
4d ago1walrusMidSellYes98¢$7
4d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo36¢$11
4d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo36¢$5
4d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo36¢$2
4d agoviniiTopBuyYes63¢$54
4d ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyNo23¢$2
4d ago1walrusMidBuyYes60¢$126
4d ago1walrusMidBuyYes60¢$58
4d ago1walrusMidBuyYes60¢$131
4d ago1walrusMidBuyYes60¢$27
4d ago1walrusMidBuyYes60¢$18
4d ago1walrusMidBuyNo17¢$8
1w ago1walrusMidBuyYes68¢$31
1w ago1walrusMidBuyYes68¢$2,776
2w ago1walrusMidBuyYes56¢$56
5w ago1walrusMidBuyYes51¢$26
5w ago1walrusMidBuyNo35¢$1
5w ago1walrusMidBuyYes35¢$78
5w ago1walrusMidBuyYes35¢$26