| Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | Yes | 9.5K | 67¢ | 98¢ | $9,299 | +$2,931 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 44 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 7.4K | 26¢ | 98¢ | $7,247 | +$5,327 |
| Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10? | No | 7.7K | 84¢ | 88¢ | $6,727 | +$309 |
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | Yes | 5.7K | 82¢ | 98¢ | $5,579 | +$913 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 175 and 179 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 6.3K | 69¢ | 77¢ | $4,902 | +$535 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 170 and 174 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | No | 5.6K | 68¢ | 80¢ | $4,511 | +$675 |
| Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET? | No | 17.3K | 72¢ | 25¢ | $4,249 | -$8,217 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 45 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | No | 4K | 23¢ | 99¢ | $3,978 | +$3,044 |
| Will Doris Matsui win the CA-07 House seat? | Yes | 2.8K | 67¢ | 97¢ | $2,743 | +$860 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 15K | 13¢ | 13¢ | $1,875 | -$75 |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | Yes | 4.9K | 44¢ | 22¢ | $1,074 | -$1,069 |
| Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | No | 1K | 84¢ | 98¢ | $1,008 | +$145 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | Yes | 5K | 17¢ | 17¢ | $825 | -$25 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4.7K | 68¢ | 15¢ | $699 | -$2,455 |
| Will Labour Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand? | No | 823.6 | 50¢ | 80¢ | $659 | +$248 |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | 663 | 43¢ | 97¢ | $644 | +$360 |
| Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election? | Yes | 579 | 48¢ | 99¢ | $574 | +$297 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 14.1K | 4.8¢ | 3.9¢ | $559 | -$116 |
| Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | Yes | 4.9K | 23¢ | 10¢ | $490 | -$635 |
| Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | Yes | 465 | 33¢ | 98¢ | $454 | +$299 |
| Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 2:59 PM ET? | Yes | 491.6 | 66¢ | 86¢ | $423 | +$96 |
| Will the Opportunity Party win fewer than 4 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | No | 372.8 | 76¢ | 98¢ | $366 | +$82 |
| Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11? | Yes | 375.7 | 91¢ | 94¢ | $353 | +$12 |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2.9K | 11¢ | 8.0¢ | $236 | -$92 |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | Yes | 11K | 69¢ | 2.0¢ | $226 | -$7,347 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | Yes | 7.5K | 16¢ | 2.6¢ | $199 | -$1,000 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 188.1 | 53¢ | 75¢ | $142 | +$42 |
| Israeli election results in a hung parliament? | Yes | 385 | 37¢ | 32¢ | $123 | -$18 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes | 2.4K | 4.4¢ | 4.8¢ | $116 | +$11 |
| Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | No | 127.5 | 41¢ | 53¢ | $68 | +$16 |
| Will the Senate margins of victory rank Alaska, Ohio, Kansas, Texas from lowest to highest? | Yes | 100 | 64¢ | 44¢ | $44 | -$20 |
| Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | No | 34.7 | 79¢ | 99¢ | $34 | +$7 |
| Will the Senate margins of victory rank Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, Texas from lowest to highest? | Yes | 100 | 20¢ | 18¢ | $18 | -$3 |
| Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? | Yes | 4.1K | 58¢ | 0.1¢ | $6 | -$2,338 |
| Will Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat? | Yes | 35 | 5.0¢ | 2.5¢ | $1 | -$1 |
| Will the National Party win 45-49 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | Yes | 46.1 | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will the International Association of Judges win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? | No | 2.4K | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$717 |
| Will Bonnie Crombie win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election? | Yes | 354.7 | 54¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$190 |
| Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? | Yes | 348 | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$97 |
| Will Tukaka George Tamarua Ama win the Ngatangiia constituency in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? | No | 1.4K | 5.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$76 |
| Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 70 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$25 |
| Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will AfD win 42-45 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | Yes | 2.2K | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$647 |
| Will John Larson be the Democratic nominee for CT-01? | Yes | 14.8K | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2,533 |
| Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? | Yes | 802 | 38¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$309 |
| Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election? | Yes | 502.2 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$109 |
| Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will the International Peace Research Association win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 5K | 1.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$89 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? | Yes | 7.2K | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,895 |
| Will Yad Vashem win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? | Yes | 1.4K | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$142 |
| Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | Yes | 4K | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,186 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 59.2K | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$6,071 |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 73.1K | 5.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4,002 |
| Will Donavan McKinney win the MI-13 Democratic primary by at least 16%? | Yes | 370.8 | 10.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$37 |
| No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting? | No | 1.1K | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$138 |
| Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial second round by at least 15%? | Yes | 64 | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%? | Yes | 249.7 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$56 |
| Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? | Yes | 2.7K | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$662 |
| Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | Yes | 1.6K | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$232 |
| Will Nate Pollnow be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee? | Yes | 376.3 | 43¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$161 |
| Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02? | No | 12.5K | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3,138 |
| Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? | No | 6K | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,700 |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | Yes | 2.6K | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$501 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 4.8K | 52¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2,511 |
| Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be 120,000 voters or higher? | Yes | 473.2 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$142 |
| Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? | Yes | 5.4K | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,688 |
| Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 6.2K | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$696 |
| Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Kyle Blomquist be the MI-01 Democratic nominee? | Yes | 20.4K | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4,561 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 1.7K | 51¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$854 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%? | Yes | 429.9 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$45 |
| Will the Parents Circle – Families Forum win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? | Yes | 3.4K | 33¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,145 |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%? | Yes | 800.8 | 47¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$376 |
| Will Callie Barr be the MI-01 Democratic nominee? | No | 2.7K | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$546 |
| Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 5.4K | 1.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$103 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | No | 10.5K | 10.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,047 |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 11.3K | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,422 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 34.3K | 7.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2,433 |
| Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | Yes | 8.4K | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$503 |
| Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? | Yes | 167.1 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$43 |
| Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | No | 47.3K | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2,833 |
| Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 1.5K | 45¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$666 |
| Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee? | Yes | 1K | 75¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$765 |
| Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | Yes | 2K | 36¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$717 |
| Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Jared Moskowitz win the FL-25 Democratic primary by 20–25%? | Yes | 240 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$39 |
| Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | Yes | 1.4K | 65¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$885 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 35.3K | 2.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$805 |
| Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 3.9K | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,102 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? | Yes | 1.6K | 45¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$722 |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | No | 318.7 | 77¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$245 |
| Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? | Yes | 10.3K | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,435 |
| Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | Yes | 8.7K | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$870 |
| Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? | No | 660 | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$224 |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 378.4 | 46¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$173 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 6.5K | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2,011 |
| Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election? | Yes | 3.3K | 71¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2,347 |
| Will Eliott Rodriguez be the FL-27 Democratic nominee? | No | 1.3K | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$264 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? | Yes | 782 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$99 |
| Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? | Yes | 1.7K | 37¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$641 |
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | No | 1.2K | 38¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$462 |
| Will PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections? | Yes | 3K | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$824 |
| Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 10–15%? | Yes | 1.3K | 5.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$73 |
| Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? | Yes | 4.1K | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$620 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 12.1K | 5.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$636 |
| Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%? | Yes | 3.5K | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$663 |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? | No | 4.9K | 3.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$170 |
| Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Robin Peguero be the FL-27 Democratic nominee? | Yes | 834 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$149 |
| Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee? | No | 3.6K | 74¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2,677 |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 9.8K | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,371 |
| Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? | No | 7.1K | 48¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3,463 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 2.1K | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$336 |
| Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 606.8 | 3.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$23 |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 12.9K | 72¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$9,297 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 1K | 73¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$730 |
| Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 1.5K | 2.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$31 |