Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?
ActiveLiquidity $6,199·Volume $91.5K·Ends Jan 1, 2028
Price now:Yes22%No78%
Smart money leans
Yes
22% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
22%price22%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$858 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered44¢22¢at 18:20(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppSignal age30dResolvesin 416d(Jan 1, 2028)Liquidity$6,199
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $858 riding on it.
The price of 22% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 44¢; the price was 22¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $858 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 18:20
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | Yes | 19¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | Yes | 20¢ | $5 |
| 2w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 68¢ | $57 |
| 5w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 65¢ | $29 |
| 5w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 65¢ | $42 |
| 7w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | Yes | 65¢ | $5 |
| 7w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | Yes | 64¢ | $4 |
| 7w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 30¢ | $4 |
| 7w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 29¢ | $5 |
| 7w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 28¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 28¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 35¢ | $19 |
| 7w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | Yes | 61¢ | $57 |
| 7w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 36¢ | $2 |
| 7w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 40¢ | $3 |
| 7w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 52¢ | $51 |
| 8w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 60¢ | $8 |
| 8w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 60¢ | $15 |
| 8w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $34 |
| 8w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 56¢ | $4 |
| 8w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 58¢ | $17 |
| 8w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $40 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 58¢ | $174 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 57¢ | $11 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 57¢ | $12 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 57¢ | $12 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 57¢ | $48 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 57¢ | $31 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 57¢ | $19 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 57¢ | $5 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 57¢ | $204 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 56¢ | $5 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 56¢ | $163 |
| 8w ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 44¢ | $2,191 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 52¢ | $312 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 51¢ | $306 |
| 8w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 52¢ | $0 |