Will the Republican Party hold exactly 45 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
ActiveLiquidity $69.7K·Volume $320.8K·Ends Nov 3, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
94%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$9,519 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$4,965
72h +$5,000
Smart money entered74¢99¢at 06:53(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5h agoResolvesended(Nov 3, 2026)Liquidity$69.7K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $9,519 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 74¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $9,519 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$4,965, +$5,000 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:53
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $2,193 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $2,193 |
| 12h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $281 |
| 12h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $281 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $34 |
| 2d ago | Trump2028Top | Sell | Yes | 1.1¢ | $11 |
| 2d ago | Trump2028Top | Sell | Yes | 1.1¢ | $1 |
| 3d ago | Trump2028Top | Sell | Yes | 1.1¢ | $16 |
| 3d ago | Trump2028Top | Sell | Yes | 1.1¢ | $1 |
| 3d ago | Trump2028Top | Sell | Yes | 1.1¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $758 |
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $2,167 |
| 5d ago | congoterrierMid | Buy | Yes | 3.6¢ | $21 |
| 5d ago | congoterrierMid | Buy | Yes | 3.6¢ | $5 |
| 5d ago | DonaldinhoTrumpitoMid | Sell | Yes | 3.6¢ | $148 |
| 5d ago | congoterrierMid | Buy | Yes | 3.6¢ | $154 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $4,028 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $114 |
| 5d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $20 |
| 5d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 4.8¢ | $12 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $207 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $340 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 94¢ | $209 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $133 |
| 6d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 5.3¢ | $19 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $3,906 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 92¢ | $2,433 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 92¢ | $732 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $30 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $128 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $39 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $26 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $43 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 8.0¢ | $20 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $22 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $12 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $30 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $29 |
| 6d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Sell | No | 57¢ | $131 |
| 6d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Sell | No | 57¢ | $142 |
| 6d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Sell | No | 57¢ | $23 |
| 6d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Sell | No | 57¢ | $6 |
| 6d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Sell | No | 57¢ | $20 |
| 6d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Sell | No | 57¢ | $11 |
| 6d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Sell | No | 60¢ | $15 |
| 6d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Sell | No | 60¢ | $12 |
| 6d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Sell | No | 60¢ | $45 |
| 6d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Sell | No | 60¢ | $30 |
| 6d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Sell | No | 60¢ | $6 |