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Will the Republican Party hold exactly 45 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

ActiveLiquidity $69.7K·Volume $320.8K·Ends Nov 3, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 06:53computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
94%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$9,519 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$4,965
72h +$5,000
Smart money entered74¢99¢at 06:53(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5h agoResolvesended(Nov 3, 2026)Liquidity$69.7K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $9,519 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 74¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $9,519 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$4,965, +$5,000 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 06:53
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
5h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo99¢$2,193
5h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo99¢$2,193
12h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo98¢$281
12h agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo98¢$281
1d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo98¢$34
2d agoTrump2028TopSellYes1.1¢$11
2d agoTrump2028TopSellYes1.1¢$1
3d agoTrump2028TopSellYes1.1¢$16
3d agoTrump2028TopSellYes1.1¢$1
3d agoTrump2028TopSellYes1.1¢$0
4d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo98¢$758
4d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo98¢$2,167
5d agocongoterrierMidBuyYes3.6¢$21
5d agocongoterrierMidBuyYes3.6¢$5
5d agoDonaldinhoTrumpitoMidSellYes3.6¢$148
5d agocongoterrierMidBuyYes3.6¢$154
5d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo96¢$4,028
5d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo96¢$114
5d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo96¢$20
5d agoancianoMidBuyYes4.8¢$12
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo95¢$207
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo94¢$340
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo94¢$209
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo95¢$133
6d agoancianoMidBuyYes5.3¢$19
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo95¢$3,906
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo92¢$2,433
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyNo92¢$732
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes8.0¢$30
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes8.0¢$128
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes10¢$39
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes10¢$26
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes10¢$43
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes8.0¢$20
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes10¢$22
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes10¢$12
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes10¢$30
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes10¢$3
6d agoContestable-ParfaitTopBuyYes10¢$29
6d agoEdgePuntaMidSellNo57¢$131
6d agoEdgePuntaMidSellNo57¢$142
6d agoEdgePuntaMidSellNo57¢$23
6d agoEdgePuntaMidSellNo57¢$6
6d agoEdgePuntaMidSellNo57¢$20
6d agoEdgePuntaMidSellNo57¢$11
6d agoEdgePuntaMidSellNo60¢$15
6d agoEdgePuntaMidSellNo60¢$12
6d agoEdgePuntaMidSellNo60¢$45
6d agoEdgePuntaMidSellNo60¢$30
6d agoEdgePuntaMidSellNo60¢$6