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Will the Republican Party hold between 175 and 179 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

ActiveLiquidity $21.6K·Volume $25.1K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes76%No24%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:31computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
76% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
76%price76%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$6,719 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$380
72h +$380
Smart money entered69¢76¢at 07:31(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy12h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$21.6K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $6,719 riding on it.

The price of 76% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 69¢; the price was 76¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $6,719 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$380, +$380 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:31
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
12h agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes80¢$200
12h agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes80¢$200
3d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes67¢$439
3d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes61¢$189
3d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes58¢$247
3d agoseal7TopBuyYes69¢$1,168
3d agoseal7TopBuyYes69¢$71
3d agoseal7TopBuyYes69¢$7
3d agoseal7TopBuyYes69¢$60
3d agoseal7TopBuyYes69¢$334
3d agoseal7TopBuyYes69¢$2
3d agoseal7TopBuyYes69¢$9
3d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes71¢$269
3d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes69¢$121
3d agoseal7TopBuyYes68¢$36
3d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes69¢$121
3d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes72¢$359
3d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes72¢$6
3d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes72¢$8
3d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes72¢$22
3d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes72¢$14
3d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes72¢$22
4d agoseal7TopBuyYes69¢$1,629
4d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes71¢$21
4d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes71¢$130
4d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes71¢$89
4d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes71¢$14
4d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes71¢$37
4d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes71¢$7
4d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes71¢$57
4d agoseal7TopBuyYes66¢$382
5d agoseal7TopBuyYes71¢$701
1w ago0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271MidBuyYes22¢$3