Will the Republican Party hold between 175 and 179 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
ActiveLiquidity $21.6K·Volume $25.1K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes76%No24%
Smart money leans
Yes
76% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
76%price76%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$6,719 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$380
72h +$380
Smart money entered69¢76¢at 07:31(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy12h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$21.6K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $6,719 riding on it.
The price of 76% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 69¢; the price was 76¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $6,719 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$380, +$380 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:31
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12h ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 80¢ | $200 |
| 12h ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 80¢ | $200 |
| 3d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $439 |
| 3d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 61¢ | $189 |
| 3d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 58¢ | $247 |
| 3d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $1,168 |
| 3d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $71 |
| 3d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $7 |
| 3d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $60 |
| 3d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $334 |
| 3d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $2 |
| 3d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $9 |
| 3d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $269 |
| 3d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $121 |
| 3d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $36 |
| 3d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $121 |
| 3d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $359 |
| 3d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $6 |
| 3d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $8 |
| 3d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $22 |
| 3d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $14 |
| 3d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $22 |
| 4d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $1,629 |
| 4d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $21 |
| 4d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $130 |
| 4d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $89 |
| 4d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $14 |
| 4d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $37 |
| 4d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $57 |
| 4d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $382 |
| 5d ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $701 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $3 |