Will the Republican Party hold between 170 and 174 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
ActiveLiquidity $24.8K·Volume $37.5K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes21%No79%
Smart money leans
No
79% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.3pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
79%price79%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$5,785 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$632
72h -$5,863
Smart money entered68¢79¢at 07:23Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$24.8K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $5,785 riding on it.
The price of 79% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 68¢; the price was 79¢ at this snapshot.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$632, -$5,863 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:23
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12h ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $580 |
| 19h ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $4 |
| 1d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $56 |
| 1d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $21 |
| 1d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $21 |
| 1d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $153 |
| 1d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $153 |
| 1d ago | ponydsbMid | Sell | No | 80¢ | $50 |
| 1d ago | seal7Top | Sell | No | 85¢ | $2,398 |
| 1d ago | seal7Top | Sell | No | 85¢ | $2,398 |
| 1d ago | seal7Top | Sell | No | 92¢ | $503 |
| 2d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $34 |
| 3d ago | seal7Top | Buy | No | 71¢ | $504 |
| 3d ago | seal7Top | Buy | No | 67¢ | $2,006 |
| 3d ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | No | 45¢ | $31 |
| 3d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | No | 64¢ | $244 |
| 3d ago | seal7Top | Buy | No | 69¢ | $1,715 |
| 3d ago | EdgePuntaMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $114 |
| 3d ago | seal7Top | Buy | No | 68¢ | $561 |
| 3d ago | ponydsbMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $2,284 |
| 3d ago | seal7Top | Buy | No | 68¢ | $4 |
| 3d ago | seal7Top | Buy | No | 68¢ | $1,362 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $2 |