Will the Opportunity Party win fewer than 4 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
ActiveLiquidity $3,153·Volume $4,985·Ends Nov 8, 2026
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$426 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h -$15
Smart money entered75¢98¢at 17:13(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4d agoResolvesended(Nov 8, 2026)Liquidity$3,153
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $426 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 75¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $426 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have trimmed -$15 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 17:13
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | 1walrusMid | Sell | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 1walrusMid | Sell | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | 1walrusMid | Sell | No | 99¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | 1walrusMid | Sell | No | 99¢ | $3 |
| 3d ago | 1walrusMid | Sell | No | 99¢ | $168 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Sell | No | 99¢ | $4 |
| 4d ago | 1walrusMid | Sell | No | 99¢ | $35 |
| 4d ago | seal7Top | Buy | No | 76¢ | $286 |
| 6d ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $346 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | 1walrusMid | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $3 |