Will Labour Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?
ActiveLiquidity $423·Volume $4,029·Ends Nov 8, 2026
Price now:Yes21%No79%
Smart money leans
No
79% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
87%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
79%price79%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$411 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$21
Smart money entered50¢79¢at 11:47(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 8, 2026)Liquidity$423
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $411 riding on it.
The price of 79% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 50¢; the price was 79¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $411 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$21 on this position.