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Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 2:59 PM ET?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $6,996·Volume $161.8K·Ends Nov 11, 2026
Price now:Yes100%No0%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:15computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$3,323 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$5,439
72h +$11.2K
Smart money entered79¢100¢at 07:15(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesended(Nov 11, 2026)Liquidity$6,996
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $3,323 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 79¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$5,439, +$11.2K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:15
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1h ago1walrusMidBuyYes100¢$2,352
1h ago1walrusMidBuyYes100¢$2,352
1h ago1walrusMidBuyYes100¢$4,840
1h ago1walrusMidBuyYes100¢$4,840
7h ago1walrusMidBuyYes96¢$96
7h ago1walrusMidBuyNo2.0¢$10
9h ago1walrusMidBuyYes88¢$171
9h agopbshineMidSellNo10¢$210
9h ago1walrusMidBuyYes88¢$185
10h agoG.HchenTopBuyYes92¢$286
10h agoG.HchenTopBuyYes92¢$286
11h agoclazzy1MidSellNo15¢$73
14h agoG.HchenTopSellYes81¢$158
14h agoG.HchenTopSellYes81¢$158
14h agoG.HchenTopSellYes81¢$2
14h agoG.HchenTopSellYes81¢$2
14h agoG.HchenTopSellYes81¢$2
14h agoG.HchenTopSellYes81¢$2
15h agoG.HchenTopSellYes81¢$162
15h agoG.HchenTopSellYes81¢$162
15h agoG.HchenTopSellYes79¢$69
15h agoG.HchenTopSellYes79¢$69
15h agoG.HchenTopSellYes78¢$234
15h agoG.HchenTopSellYes78¢$234
15h agoG.HchenTopSellYes84¢$67
15h agoG.HchenTopSellYes84¢$67
16h agoG.HchenTopBuyYes85¢$0
16h agoG.HchenTopBuyYes85¢$0
16h agoG.HchenTopBuyYes85¢$0
16h agoG.HchenTopBuyYes85¢$0
16h agoG.HchenTopBuyYes86¢$15
16h agoG.HchenTopBuyYes86¢$15
16h agoG.HchenTopBuyYes85¢$57
16h agoG.HchenTopBuyYes85¢$57
16h agoG.HchenTopBuyYes85¢$28
23h agoEdgePuntaMidSellNo17¢$504
23h agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes74¢$145
23h agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes74¢$145
23h agoEdgePuntaMidSellNo25¢$138
23h agoEdgePuntaMidSellNo25¢$138
23h agotroimMidSellYes71¢$116
23h agotroimMidSellYes71¢$368
23h agotroimMidSellYes71¢$368
23h agotroimMidSellYes71¢$92
23h agotroimMidSellYes71¢$92
23h agotroimMidSellYes72¢$135
23h agotroimMidSellYes72¢$135
1d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes92¢$405
1d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes92¢$405
1d agoEdgePuntaMidBuyYes91¢$345