| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 31.4K | 42¢ | 75¢ | $23,521 | +$10.3K |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? | No | 8.3K | 82¢ | 82¢ | $6,827 | -$36 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | Yes | 5K | 49¢ | 98¢ | $4,916 | +$2,440 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 15.5K | 30¢ | 26¢ | $4,019 | -$594 |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026? | No | 3.8K | 74¢ | 96¢ | $3,643 | +$856 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027? | No | 3.7K | 70¢ | 92¢ | $3,425 | +$826 |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by December 31, 2026? | No | 3.8K | 68¢ | 88¢ | $3,340 | +$741 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | No | 2.9K | 97¢ | 98¢ | $2,821 | +$36 |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | No | 2.7K | 97¢ | 99¢ | $2,725 | +$65 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 15.7K | 6.7¢ | 17¢ | $2,716 | +$1,673 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 27.2K | 12¢ | 9.4¢ | $2,567 | -$636 |
| Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Google by December 31? | No | 2.4K | 98¢ | 97¢ | $2,294 | -$7 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 4.2K | 54¢ | 49¢ | $2,048 | -$209 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? | No | 2.1K | 69¢ | 96¢ | $2,042 | +$571 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | No | 2K | 78¢ | 94¢ | $1,861 | +$311 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 4.9K | 35¢ | 37¢ | $1,815 | +$89 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | Yes | 12K | 44¢ | 15¢ | $1,798 | -$3,502 |
| Will there be no next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) release by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 2K | 73¢ | 89¢ | $1,761 | +$333 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | Yes | 1.7K | 82¢ | 98¢ | $1,622 | +$265 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 1.6K | 66¢ | 90¢ | $1,485 | +$397 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 1.5K | 81¢ | 99¢ | $1,478 | +$266 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | Yes | 6.9K | 29¢ | 19¢ | $1,305 | -$667 |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? | Yes | 1.8K | 26¢ | 57¢ | $1,055 | +$582 |
| Will Export-control chip security become law this year? | Yes | 1.6K | 44¢ | 67¢ | $1,041 | +$350 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | No | 1K | 96¢ | 99¢ | $987 | +$27 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 1.1K | 69¢ | 82¢ | $866 | +$133 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026? | No | 773.9 | 69¢ | 100¢ | $774 | +$237 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by November 30, 2026? | No | 751.4 | 69¢ | 96¢ | $719 | +$200 |
| Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? | Yes | 1.5K | 45¢ | 48¢ | $713 | +$38 |
| Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | Yes | 2.5K | 15¢ | 28¢ | $680 | +$304 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 4.9K | 20¢ | 14¢ | $670 | -$314 |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? | Yes | 666.6 | 7.5¢ | 99¢ | $661 | +$611 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? | No | 662 | 73¢ | 94¢ | $621 | +$140 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 2.4K | 30¢ | 26¢ | $618 | -$86 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 23.8K | 2.8¢ | 2.5¢ | $607 | -$70 |
| Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? | No | 597.3 | 90¢ | 99¢ | $594 | +$56 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 7.5K | 23¢ | 7.5¢ | $563 | -$1,193 |
| Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 783.7 | 47¢ | 70¢ | $549 | +$181 |
| Will Grok 5 be released by November 30, 2026? | No | 543.2 | 95¢ | 99¢ | $540 | +$24 |
| OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? | Yes | 605 | 72¢ | 87¢ | $528 | +$93 |
| Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 639.9 | 75¢ | 82¢ | $525 | +$46 |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T? | Yes | 1.5K | 56¢ | 34¢ | $519 | -$342 |
| Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 548 | 76¢ | 94¢ | $517 | +$99 |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 1.2K | 69¢ | 42¢ | $509 | -$330 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 500 | 90¢ | 98¢ | $492 | +$42 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026? | No | 526.5 | 70¢ | 89¢ | $471 | +$103 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 5.8K | 23¢ | 8.0¢ | $465 | -$888 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 25K | 12¢ | 1.8¢ | $462 | -$2,524 |
| Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 520 | 83¢ | 88¢ | $460 | +$26 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 1K | 46¢ | 45¢ | $450 | -$10 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 13.4K | 18¢ | 3.3¢ | $444 | -$1,965 |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 2.1K | 21¢ | 22¢ | $441 | +$19 |
| Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 433.2 | 97¢ | 100¢ | $431 | +$11 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027? | No | 500 | 62¢ | 82¢ | $408 | +$98 |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 1.2K | 32¢ | 32¢ | $399 | -$3 |
| Will Candidate B be the next CEO of NVIDIA? | Yes | 1.3K | 27¢ | 30¢ | $378 | +$33 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? | No | 386.4 | 62¢ | 95¢ | $365 | +$127 |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 816.6 | 37¢ | 44¢ | $363 | +$58 |
| Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 459 | 60¢ | 79¢ | $360 | +$84 |
| Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 352.6 | 97¢ | 98¢ | $347 | +$6 |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 500 | 62¢ | 69¢ | $343 | +$32 |
| Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by January 31, 2027? | Yes | 407.9 | 71¢ | 84¢ | $343 | +$52 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 23, 2026? | Yes | 344.8 | 54¢ | 98¢ | $337 | +$152 |
| Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | Yes | 328.3 | 92¢ | 98¢ | $323 | +$22 |
| Will Jensen Huang join a new company by December 31, 2026? | No | 349.2 | 89¢ | 89¢ | $313 | +$2 |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027? | No | 489.4 | 70¢ | 64¢ | $311 | -$32 |
| Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? | Yes | 5K | 16¢ | 5.5¢ | $273 | -$507 |
| Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 553.2 | 38¢ | 48¢ | $268 | +$58 |
| Will Anthropic raise between $65B and $75B in its IPO? | Yes | 700 | 36¢ | 36¢ | $253 | +$4 |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by September 30, 2027? | Yes | 500 | 61¢ | 50¢ | $248 | -$58 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | No | 235.6 | 87¢ | 97¢ | $229 | +$23 |
| Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026? | No | 239.5 | 84¢ | 91¢ | $218 | +$17 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | No | 546.4 | 59¢ | 39¢ | $213 | -$110 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | No | 245 | 70¢ | 84¢ | $206 | +$34 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | Yes | 680 | 29¢ | 29¢ | $199 | +$3 |
| Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027? | No | 192.8 | 97¢ | 99¢ | $192 | +$5 |
| Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 184.8 | 96¢ | 98¢ | $182 | +$5 |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | Yes | 3.2K | 15¢ | 5.5¢ | $177 | -$302 |
| Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 180 | 19¢ | 92¢ | $165 | +$131 |
| Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 325 | 95¢ | 50¢ | $164 | -$145 |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 290.5 | 35¢ | 56¢ | $163 | +$61 |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 404.2 | 30¢ | 40¢ | $162 | +$40 |
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | Yes | 461.4 | 18¢ | 34¢ | $155 | +$74 |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 2K | 48¢ | 7.6¢ | $153 | -$807 |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 881.5 | 17¢ | 15¢ | $137 | -$14 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 3.7K | 7.0¢ | 3.4¢ | $128 | -$131 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes | 6K | 8.5¢ | 1.8¢ | $111 | -$399 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026? | Yes | 110 | 93¢ | 97¢ | $107 | +$4 |
| Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 234 | 37¢ | 44¢ | $102 | +$16 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 11.8K | 8.4¢ | 0.8¢ | $100 | -$895 |
| Will Chris Van Hollen be the next Senate Majority Leader? | Yes | 641.6 | 17¢ | 16¢ | $99 | -$12 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 785 | 18¢ | 12¢ | $94 | -$47 |
| Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026? | No | 102 | 39¢ | 90¢ | $91 | +$52 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.3T by December 31? | No | 242 | 7.5¢ | 38¢ | $91 | +$73 |
| Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? | No | 91.3 | 99¢ | 97¢ | $89 | -$2 |
| Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 15, 2026? | No | 80 | 72¢ | 98¢ | $78 | +$21 |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | No | 2.7K | 22¢ | 2.9¢ | $78 | -$514 |
| Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 563.3 | 11¢ | 13¢ | $72 | +$11 |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 139.2 | 54¢ | 51¢ | $71 | -$4 |
| Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | Yes | 847 | 28¢ | 8.0¢ | $68 | -$172 |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? | Yes | 1.4K | 19¢ | 4.4¢ | $62 | -$200 |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | Yes | 523.7 | 6.1¢ | 11¢ | $60 | +$28 |
| Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027? | No | 60 | 97¢ | 98¢ | $59 | +$1 |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 335 | 30¢ | 17¢ | $57 | -$44 |
| OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31? | OpenAI | 603.8 | 30¢ | 9.0¢ | $54 | -$127 |
| Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027? | No | 164.1 | 40¢ | 32¢ | $53 | -$12 |
| Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and no Chinese company have the #1 AI model by the end of 2027? | Yes | 86 | 76¢ | 60¢ | $52 | -$14 |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | Yes | 1.9K | 34¢ | 2.7¢ | $50 | -$578 |
| Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? | Yes | 1.4K | 3.3¢ | 3.4¢ | $48 | +$2 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | Yes | 97 | 59¢ | 49¢ | $48 | -$10 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Yes | 74.5 | 68¢ | 59¢ | $44 | -$7 |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | No | 49.3 | 31¢ | 85¢ | $42 | +$27 |
| Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 175 | 17¢ | 24¢ | $42 | +$13 |
| Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by November 30? | No | 51.3 | 50¢ | 80¢ | $41 | +$15 |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026? | Yes | 61 | 7.0¢ | 61¢ | $37 | +$33 |
| Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 34.3 | 78¢ | 99¢ | $34 | +$7 |
| Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 15, 2026? | Yes | 800 | 44¢ | 4.2¢ | $34 | -$322 |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026? | Yes | 885.1 | 15¢ | 3.4¢ | $31 | -$105 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | No | 2.3K | 7.1¢ | 1.3¢ | $28 | -$133 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? | No | 29.5 | 70¢ | 96¢ | $28 | +$8 |
| Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | Yes | 4K | 8.5¢ | 0.7¢ | $28 | -$314 |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? | Yes | 406 | 70¢ | 5.0¢ | $20 | -$264 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? | Yes | 24.5 | 72¢ | 74¢ | $18 | +$1 |
| Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 25.3 | 58¢ | 72¢ | $18 | +$3 |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? | Yes | 2.9K | 5.3¢ | 0.6¢ | $17 | -$136 |
| Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027? | Yes | 417.6 | 15¢ | 3.5¢ | $15 | -$49 |
| Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31? | Yes | 522.6 | 10.0¢ | 2.5¢ | $13 | -$39 |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI? | Yes | 23.8 | 15¢ | 51¢ | $12 | +$9 |
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 22¢ | 10.0¢ | $10 | -$12 |
| Will SpaceX be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 789.8 | 0.5¢ | 1.2¢ | $10 | +$6 |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 1.6K | 2.2¢ | 0.5¢ | $9 | -$26 |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 760.7 | 1.2¢ | 1.0¢ | $8 | -$1 |
| Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026? | Yes | 380 | 22¢ | 2.1¢ | $8 | -$74 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 1.2K | 10¢ | 0.6¢ | $8 | -$114 |
| Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? | Yes | 413.9 | 24¢ | 1.7¢ | $7 | -$94 |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? | Yes | 531.2 | 64¢ | 0.8¢ | $4 | -$337 |
| Anthropic announces a full training pause in 2026? | Yes | 51 | 6.0¢ | 7.0¢ | $4 | +$1 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | Yes | 135.2 | 23¢ | 2.5¢ | $3 | -$27 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 163.6 | 22¢ | 1.4¢ | $2 | -$34 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI? | Yes | 19 | 28¢ | 9.5¢ | $2 | -$4 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027? | No | 1.8 | 79¢ | 81¢ | $1 | +$0 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 663.2 | 4.3¢ | 0.2¢ | $1 | -$27 |
| Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap? | OpenAI | 1.9 | 20¢ | 32¢ | $1 | +$0 |
| Will Lamine Yamal be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? | Yes | 11.2 | 2.0¢ | 1.3¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 439.4 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$69 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 13.5K | 7.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$976 |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 9K | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$23 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 8, 2026? | Yes | 785.7 | 4.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$35 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026? | Yes | 1.1K | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? | Yes | 355 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$106 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? | Yes | 1.2K | 6.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$81 |
| Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? | No | 218.3 | 71¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$154 |
| Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Yes | 684.6 | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$200 |
| Canadiens vs. Hurricanes | Canadiens | 100 | 41¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$41 |
| Will Google have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 64.6 | 2.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will OpenAI have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 273.2 | 3.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$9 |
| Meta (META) Up or Down on August 25? | Down | 460 | 53¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$246 |
| Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on September 1? | Up | 400 | 54¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$216 |
| Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 453.4 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$69 |
| Will Trump say "Manufacturing" during remarks in Las Vegas? | No | 67.3 | 39¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$26 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | No | 21 | 7.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? | Yes | 147.1 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$35 |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 2.3K | 23¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$530 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 2.4K | 3.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$89 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 2.3K | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 2.2K | 1.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$25 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 557.2 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$78 |
| Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 1.5K | 0.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$13 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 2.1K | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 186 | 0.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 197.6 | 57¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$113 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 137 | 1.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 585.1 | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 21, 2026? | Yes | 479.7 | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$24 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 22, 2026? | Yes | 500 | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$25 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026? | Yes | 2.9K | 59¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,686 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 27, 2026? | Yes | 3.9K | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 28, 2026? | Yes | 1.4K | 1.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$27 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026? | No | 2.3K | 3.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$74 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026? | Yes | 1.7K | 41¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$709 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026? | No | 1.9K | 33¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$623 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 734.9 | 0.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$6 |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 3K | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$6 |
| Gemini 3.2 released by May 18, 2026? | Yes | 319 | 1.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 900 | 0.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$6 |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 1.2K | 9.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$115 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 124.1 | 0.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 387.5 | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 500 | 0.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3 |
| Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 854.8 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 104.9 | 94¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$99 |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? | Yes | 45.7 | 59¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$27 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 20, 2026? | Yes | 150 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 13? | Yes | 77.2 | 7.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$6 |
| Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 14? | Yes | 41 | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3 |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | No | 540.5 | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$155 |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | No | 58 | 61¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$35 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 900 | 1.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 299 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 987.5 | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 128.1 | 0.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 991.3 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | Yes | 5.5K | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,574 |
| Will Cerebras' market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 500 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$130 |
| Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 94.7 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Claude Mythos be released on June 16? | Yes | 423.9 | 0.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3 |
| Will Claude Mythos be released on June 18? | Yes | 281.8 | 0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Grok 4.4 released by June 15? | Yes | 300 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$66 |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 524 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$137 |
| Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 333.4 | 0.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 1.2K | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 8.1 | 1.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | Yes | 715.9 | 27¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$194 |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 1.2K | 9.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$110 |
| Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 2.9K | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$6 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 18, 2026? | No | 792 | 6.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$55 |
| Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026? | Yes | 1K | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$129 |
| Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? | Yes | 477.4 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$105 |
| Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 1.4 | 0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Meta have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 309.5 | 0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on July 25, 2026? | Yes | 1.2K | 3.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$43 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 350.5 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10 |
| Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam? | No | 149.9 | 32¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$49 |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 50 | 27¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$14 |
| Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 757.7 | 1.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10 |
| Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 694.8 | 0.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 500 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$150 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on May 1, 2026? | Yes | 379.7 | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on May 1, 2026? | Yes | 969.8 | 0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of April 27 2026? | Yes | 487.4 | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? | Yes | 4.3K | 2.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$120 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May? | Yes | 2.1K | 5.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$113 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? | Yes | 150.9 | 32¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$48 |
| Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? | Yes | 200.4 | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$67 |
| Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 79.9 | 5.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$5 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 16, 2026? | Yes | 678 | 8.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$55 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 17, 2026? | Yes | 1.1K | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$87 |
| Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 633.2 | 0.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$6 |
| Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 1.1K | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Trump out as President by July 31? | Yes | 2K | 0.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$14 |
| Will Claude be restored for international customers by June 30? | Yes | 305.2 | 3.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$11 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by July 31? | Yes | 215.7 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$25 |
| Will Google have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 109 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3 |
| Will Black Forest Labs have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of July 2026? | Yes | 138.3 | 1.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by December 31, 2026? | No | 78.3 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10 |
| Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 8? | Yes | 602.8 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$81 |
| Will any other model have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? | Yes | 182.1 | 0.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by July 31? | Yes | 1.8K | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$196 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 1.3K | 72¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$949 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | Yes | 600 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$114 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | Yes | 1.3K | 44¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$580 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 19, 2026? | No | 492.6 | 43¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$212 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026? | No | 435.6 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$65 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | Yes | 3K | 8.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$257 |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | Yes | 555.6 | 1.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10 |
| Raptors vs. Pistons | Raptors | 160.9 | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$13 |
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 2K | 1.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$33 |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 599 | 78¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$467 |
| Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs | Team Liquid | 700 | 37¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$259 |
| Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 736.4 | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$251 |
| Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 362.3 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Will ByteDance be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 210.3 | 0.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Tencent be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 1.1K | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 440.3 | 8.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$39 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 388.4 | 4.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$16 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 68.7 | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 396.1 | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 120 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$16 |
| Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 658.8 | 0.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Will ByteDance be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 321.5 | 0.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3 |
| Will Tencent be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 579 | 0.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3 |
| Will StepFun be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 482.6 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 292.2 | 44¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$128 |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 5 | 8.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 175.7 | 41¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$72 |
| Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 383 | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$107 |
| Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 154.6 | 62¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$97 |
| Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 875.8 | 10.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$87 |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 304.9 | 84¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$255 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 508.9 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$62 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of August 2026? | No | 450.3 | 7.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$35 |
| Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 81.3 | 40¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$33 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 3.2K | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$487 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 4.8K | 5.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$276 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 1K | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$120 |
| Will ByteDance be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 174.8 | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 809.2 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 8.7K | 3.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$284 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 1K | 0.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$5 |
| Will Google have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 193.5 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 386 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$48 |
| Will ByteDance be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 3K | 0.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$27 |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 157.4 | 55¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$87 |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 1.5K | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 1K | 40¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$400 |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 246.8 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$35 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 607.2 | 3.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$22 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 604.7 | 3.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$19 |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 1.4K | 4.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$61 |
| Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | Yes | 23.6 | 0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election? | Yes | 203.8 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$20 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 7.4K | 2.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$153 |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on August 31, 2026? | Yes | 2.3K | 6.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$155 |
| Will Z.ai be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 155 | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$8 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 6, 2026? | Yes | 1.4K | 2.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$34 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 13, 2026? | Yes | 209.4 | 0.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 25, 2026? | Yes | 74.4 | 3.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 26, 2026? | Yes | 497.1 | 2.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$14 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 27, 2026? | Yes | 709.9 | 5.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$42 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 477 | 1.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$5 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 77.8 | 6.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$5 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 500 | 3.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$18 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 6K | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,680 |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 12.7K | 1.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$134 |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 1.1K | 0.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$8 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026? | Yes | 108.1 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$18 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 5, 2026? | Yes | 786.3 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$134 |
| Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 2K | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$140 |
| Will Moonshot be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 999.9 | 3.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$35 |
| Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 869.1 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$105 |
| Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 1K | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10 |
| Will DeepSeek be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 563.5 | 0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 142 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$23 |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026? | Yes | 722.8 | 53¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$382 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 1.2K | 9.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$115 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 700.8 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$101 |
| Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 500 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$50 |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 329.6 | 4.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$16 |
| Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 639 | 2.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$13 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 925 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$111 |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 1.5K | 6.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$103 |
| Will SpaceXAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 1.5K | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will DeepSeek be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 849.4 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Does Ox Alpha belong to Mistral? | Yes | 84.7 | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026? | Yes | 291.1 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$39 |
| Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 462.4 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$103 |
| Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 447.8 | 44¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$199 |
| Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 504.4 | 9.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$48 |
| Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on September 21, 2026? | Yes | 390 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on September 21, 2026? | Yes | 491.2 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$87 |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 22, 2026? | Yes | 160 | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | Yes | 458.5 | 10.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$46 |
| Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026? | No | 949.1 | 6.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$65 |
| Will Gemini Argon be released on October 14, 2026? | Yes | 300 | 7.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$23 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | Yes | 185 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$23 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 8, 2026? | Yes | 710 | 1.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$11 |
| Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 9, 2026? | Yes | 446.6 | 8.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$36 |
| Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026? | Yes | 1.9K | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$286 |
| Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026? | No | 722 | 21¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$152 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? | Yes | 215 | 51¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$110 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? | Yes | 120 | 54¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$65 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 20 | 75¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$15 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026? | Yes | 1.7K | 21¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$358 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | No | 4K | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$240 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 792 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$160 |
| Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2.9K | 0.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$16 |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | Norway | 300 | 32¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$95 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 880 | 6.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$58 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 17, 2026? | Yes | 500 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$50 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026? | No | 134.2 | 57¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$76 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 22, 2026? | No | 550.3 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$137 |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 442.2 | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$138 |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 585 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$118 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | Yes | 329.3 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$60 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026? | Yes | 212.5 | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$24 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 320.8 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$37 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | No | 4.6K | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,412 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes | 774.6 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$144 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | No | 1K | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$70 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by December 31, 2026? | No | 590.8 | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$181 |
| Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | Yes | 251.6 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$29 |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by October 31? | Yes | 3.1K | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$534 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 3.7K | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$600 |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 318.4 | 73¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$232 |
| Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027? | No | 500 | 1.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$9 |
| Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Morocco? | Yes | 600 | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$168 |
| Grok 4.6 released by August 12, 2026? | No | 2.5K | 64¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,594 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31? | No | 122.9 | 67¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$82 |
| Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 571.4 | 7.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$42 |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1.2K | 72¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$864 |
| Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 2K | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$430 |
| Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | No | 1.7 | 43¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 460 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$78 |
| Will Anthropic reset Claude usage limit by August 31? | Yes | 299.4 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$49 |
| Will the next Mythos-Class model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026? | No | 251.2 | 52¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$131 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET | Down | 579.9 | 32¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$186 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET | Down | 837.3 | 49¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$407 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 207.7 | 36¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$75 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? | Yes | 916.3 | 5.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$47 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? | Yes | 0.3 | 6.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 10.6K | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$21 |