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Contentious-Dinnerdate

MidPolymarket
0x736539924a5602b37a03a54fc12c1cc8f98964da
Tracking since Nov 11, 2026 · bankroll $110.1K
Quality score
0.606
Goodas of Nov 13, 2026
PnL 30d
+$2,350
PnL 90d
+$19.2K
ROI 90d
+13%
on $145.1K deployed
Entry edge
53%
108 resolved markets
Volume 90d
$690.0K
4667 trades
Breadth 90d
481
distinct markets
Quality score — 90 days
Delayed 1h · as of 05:15
MarketOutcomeSizeAvg priceCurrentValuePnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes31.4K42¢75¢$23,521+$10.3K
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?No8.3K82¢82¢$6,827-$36
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?Yes5K49¢98¢$4,916+$2,440
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?Yes15.5K30¢26¢$4,019-$594
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026?No3.8K74¢96¢$3,643+$856
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?No3.7K70¢92¢$3,425+$826
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by December 31, 2026?No3.8K68¢88¢$3,340+$741
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?No2.9K97¢98¢$2,821+$36
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?No2.7K97¢99¢$2,725+$65
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes15.7K6.7¢17¢$2,716+$1,673
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes27.2K12¢9.4¢$2,567-$636
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Google by December 31?No2.4K98¢97¢$2,294-$7
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes4.2K54¢49¢$2,048-$209
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?No2.1K69¢96¢$2,042+$571
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No2K78¢94¢$1,861+$311
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes4.9K35¢37¢$1,815+$89
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes12K44¢15¢$1,798-$3,502
Will there be no next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) release by November 30, 2026?Yes2K73¢89¢$1,761+$333
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Yes1.7K82¢98¢$1,622+$265
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No1.6K66¢90¢$1,485+$397
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Yes1.5K81¢99¢$1,478+$266
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yes6.9K29¢19¢$1,305-$667
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?Yes1.8K26¢57¢$1,055+$582
Will Export-control chip security become law this year?Yes1.6K44¢67¢$1,041+$350
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?No1K96¢99¢$987+$27
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes1.1K69¢82¢$866+$133
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 12, 2026?No773.969¢100¢$774+$237
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by November 30, 2026?No751.469¢96¢$719+$200
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?Yes1.5K45¢48¢$713+$38
Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Yes2.5K15¢28¢$680+$304
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes4.9K20¢14¢$670-$314
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?Yes666.67.5¢99¢$661+$611
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?No66273¢94¢$621+$140
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes2.4K30¢26¢$618-$86
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes23.8K2.8¢2.5¢$607-$70
Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?No597.390¢99¢$594+$56
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes7.5K23¢7.5¢$563-$1,193
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026?Yes783.747¢70¢$549+$181
Will Grok 5 be released by November 30, 2026?No543.295¢99¢$540+$24
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?Yes60572¢87¢$528+$93
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027?Yes639.975¢82¢$525+$46
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T?Yes1.5K56¢34¢$519-$342
Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?Yes54876¢94¢$517+$99
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No1.2K69¢42¢$509-$330
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No50090¢98¢$492+$42
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?No526.570¢89¢$471+$103
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes5.8K23¢8.0¢$465-$888
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes25K12¢1.8¢$462-$2,524
Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026?Yes52083¢88¢$460+$26
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?Yes1K46¢45¢$450-$10
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes13.4K18¢3.3¢$444-$1,965
Will DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027?Yes2.1K21¢22¢$441+$19
Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?Yes433.297¢100¢$431+$11
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?No50062¢82¢$408+$98
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?Yes1.2K32¢32¢$399-$3
Will Candidate B be the next CEO of NVIDIA?Yes1.3K27¢30¢$378+$33
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?No386.462¢95¢$365+$127
Will DeepSeek IPO by June 30, 2027?Yes816.637¢44¢$363+$58
Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by December 31, 2027?Yes45960¢79¢$360+$84
Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No352.697¢98¢$347+$6
Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes50062¢69¢$343+$32
Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by January 31, 2027?Yes407.971¢84¢$343+$52
Will Anthropic IPO by November 23, 2026?Yes344.854¢98¢$337+$152
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?Yes328.392¢98¢$323+$22
Will Jensen Huang join a new company by December 31, 2026?No349.289¢89¢$313+$2
Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?No489.470¢64¢$311-$32
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?Yes5K16¢5.5¢$273-$507
Rockstar releases PC version of GTA VI by June 30, 2027?Yes553.238¢48¢$268+$58
Will Anthropic raise between $65B and $75B in its IPO?Yes70036¢36¢$253+$4
Will DeepSeek IPO by September 30, 2027?Yes50061¢50¢$248-$58
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No235.687¢97¢$229+$23
Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?No239.584¢91¢$218+$17
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?No546.459¢39¢$213-$110
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?No24570¢84¢$206+$34
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes68029¢29¢$199+$3
Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?No192.897¢99¢$192+$5
Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by December 31, 2026?Yes184.896¢98¢$182+$5
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?Yes3.2K15¢5.5¢$177-$302
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No18019¢92¢$165+$131
Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by December 31, 2026?Yes32595¢50¢$164-$145
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes290.535¢56¢$163+$61
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes404.230¢40¢$162+$40
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes461.418¢34¢$155+$74
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes2K48¢7.6¢$153-$807
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?Yes881.517¢15¢$137-$14
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes3.7K7.0¢3.4¢$128-$131
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?Yes6K8.5¢1.8¢$111-$399
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?Yes11093¢97¢$107+$4
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?Yes23437¢44¢$102+$16
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?Yes11.8K8.4¢0.8¢$100-$895
Will Chris Van Hollen be the next Senate Majority Leader?Yes641.617¢16¢$99-$12
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?Yes78518¢12¢$94-$47
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026?No10239¢90¢$91+$52
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.3T by December 31?No2427.5¢38¢$91+$73
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?No91.399¢97¢$89-$2
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 15, 2026?No8072¢98¢$78+$21
Anthropic IPO before 2027?No2.7K22¢2.9¢$78-$514
Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?Yes563.311¢13¢$72+$11
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?Yes139.254¢51¢$71-$4
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Yes84728¢8.0¢$68-$172
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?Yes1.4K19¢4.4¢$62-$200
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?Yes523.76.1¢11¢$60+$28
Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?No6097¢98¢$59+$1
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?Yes33530¢17¢$57-$44
OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?OpenAI603.830¢9.0¢$54-$127
Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?No164.140¢32¢$53-$12
Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and no Chinese company have the #1 AI model by the end of 2027?Yes8676¢60¢$52-$14
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?Yes1.9K34¢2.7¢$50-$578
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?Yes1.4K3.3¢3.4¢$48+$2
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Yes9759¢49¢$48-$10
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes74.568¢59¢$44-$7
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?No49.331¢85¢$42+$27
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?Yes17517¢24¢$42+$13
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by November 30?No51.350¢80¢$41+$15
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?Yes617.0¢61¢$37+$33
Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by December 31, 2026?Yes34.378¢99¢$34+$7
Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 15, 2026?Yes80044¢4.2¢$34-$322
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?Yes885.115¢3.4¢$31-$105
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?No2.3K7.1¢1.3¢$28-$133
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?No29.570¢96¢$28+$8
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes4K8.5¢0.7¢$28-$314
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?Yes40670¢5.0¢$20-$264
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?Yes24.572¢74¢$18+$1
Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by December 31, 2026?Yes25.358¢72¢$18+$3
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?Yes2.9K5.3¢0.6¢$17-$136
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027?Yes417.615¢3.5¢$15-$49
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?Yes522.610.0¢2.5¢$13-$39
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI?Yes23.815¢51¢$12+$9
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?Yes10022¢10.0¢$10-$12
Will SpaceX be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes789.80.5¢1.2¢$10+$6
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes1.6K2.2¢0.5¢$9-$26
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes760.71.2¢1.0¢$8-$1
Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026?Yes38022¢2.1¢$8-$74
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?Yes1.2K10¢0.6¢$8-$114
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?Yes413.924¢1.7¢$7-$94
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?Yes531.264¢0.8¢$4-$337
Anthropic announces a full training pause in 2026?Yes516.0¢7.0¢$4+$1
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes135.223¢2.5¢$3-$27
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?No163.622¢1.4¢$2-$34
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?Yes1928¢9.5¢$2-$4
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?No1.879¢81¢$1+$0
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes663.24.3¢0.2¢$1-$27
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?OpenAI1.920¢32¢$1+$0
Will Lamine Yamal be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?Yes11.22.0¢1.3¢$0-$0
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes439.416¢0.0¢$0-$69
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes13.5K7.2¢0.0¢$0-$976
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes9K0.3¢0.0¢$0-$23
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 8, 2026?Yes785.74.4¢0.0¢$0-$35
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026?Yes1.1K0.3¢0.0¢$0-$3
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?Yes35530¢0.0¢$0-$106
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?Yes1.2K6.5¢0.0¢$0-$81
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?No218.371¢0.0¢$0-$154
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?Yes684.629¢0.0¢$0-$200
Canadiens vs. HurricanesCanadiens10041¢0.0¢$0-$41
Will Google have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes64.62.0¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will OpenAI have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes273.23.4¢0.0¢$0-$9
Meta (META) Up or Down on August 25?Down46053¢0.0¢$0-$246
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on September 1?Up40054¢0.0¢$0-$216
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes453.415¢0.0¢$0-$69
Will Trump say "Manufacturing" during remarks in Las Vegas?No67.339¢0.0¢$0-$26
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?No217.1¢0.0¢$0-$1
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?Yes147.124¢0.0¢$0-$35
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes2.3K23¢0.0¢$0-$530
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes2.4K3.7¢0.0¢$0-$89
Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes2.3K0.1¢0.0¢$0-$2
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes2.2K1.1¢0.0¢$0-$25
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes557.214¢0.0¢$0-$78
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes1.5K0.9¢0.0¢$0-$13
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes2.1K0.1¢0.0¢$0-$2
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes1860.6¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?Yes197.657¢0.0¢$0-$113
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?Yes1371.2¢0.0¢$0-$2
Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?Yes585.10.2¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 21, 2026?Yes479.75.0¢0.0¢$0-$24
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 22, 2026?Yes5005.0¢0.0¢$0-$25
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?Yes2.9K59¢0.0¢$0-$1,686
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 27, 2026?Yes3.9K0.1¢0.0¢$0-$4
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 28, 2026?Yes1.4K1.9¢0.0¢$0-$27
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?No2.3K3.2¢0.0¢$0-$74
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?Yes1.7K41¢0.0¢$0-$709
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?No1.9K33¢0.0¢$0-$623
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes734.90.8¢0.0¢$0-$6
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes3K0.2¢0.0¢$0-$6
Gemini 3.2 released by May 18, 2026?Yes3191.2¢0.0¢$0-$4
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes9000.6¢0.0¢$0-$6
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes1.2K9.8¢0.0¢$0-$115
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes124.10.8¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes387.50.2¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes5000.6¢0.0¢$0-$3
Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes854.80.1¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?Yes104.994¢0.0¢$0-$99
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026?Yes45.759¢0.0¢$0-$27
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 20, 2026?Yes1501.0¢0.0¢$0-$2
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 13?Yes77.27.6¢0.0¢$0-$6
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 14?Yes417.0¢0.0¢$0-$3
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No540.529¢0.0¢$0-$155
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?No5861¢0.0¢$0-$35
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?Yes9001.1¢0.0¢$0-$10
Will Z.ai have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?Yes2990.1¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will Alibaba have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?Yes987.50.2¢0.0¢$0-$2
Will DeepSeek have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?Yes128.10.7¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes991.30.1¢0.0¢$0-$2
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026?Yes5.5K29¢0.0¢$0-$1,574
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?Yes50026¢0.0¢$0-$130
Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes94.71.0¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 16?Yes423.90.7¢0.0¢$0-$3
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 18?Yes281.80.4¢0.0¢$0-$1
Grok 4.4 released by June 15?Yes30022¢0.0¢$0-$66
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes52426¢0.0¢$0-$137
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes333.40.5¢0.0¢$0-$2
Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes1.2K0.1¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes8.11.3¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Yes715.927¢0.0¢$0-$194
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes1.2K9.2¢0.0¢$0-$110
Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes2.9K0.2¢0.0¢$0-$6
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 18, 2026?No7926.9¢0.0¢$0-$55
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?Yes1K13¢0.0¢$0-$129
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?Yes477.422¢0.0¢$0-$105
Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes1.40.4¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will Meta have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes309.50.4¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will any other model be the best AI model on July 25, 2026?Yes1.2K3.7¢0.0¢$0-$43
Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes350.53.0¢0.0¢$0-$10
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?No149.932¢0.0¢$0-$49
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes5027¢0.0¢$0-$14
Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes757.71.3¢0.0¢$0-$10
Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes694.80.6¢0.0¢$0-$4
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes50030¢0.0¢$0-$150
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on May 1, 2026?Yes379.70.2¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will any other model be the best AI model on May 1, 2026?Yes969.80.4¢0.0¢$0-$4
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of April 27 2026?Yes487.40.3¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?Yes4.3K2.8¢0.0¢$0-$120
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May?Yes2.1K5.4¢0.0¢$0-$113
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?Yes150.932¢0.0¢$0-$48
Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?Yes200.434¢0.0¢$0-$67
Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes79.95.9¢0.0¢$0-$5
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 16, 2026?Yes6788.1¢0.0¢$0-$55
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 17, 2026?Yes1.1K8.0¢0.0¢$0-$87
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes633.20.9¢0.0¢$0-$6
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes1.1K0.2¢0.0¢$0-$2
Trump out as President by July 31?Yes2K0.7¢0.0¢$0-$14
Will Claude be restored for international customers by June 30?Yes305.23.7¢0.0¢$0-$11
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by July 31?Yes215.712¢0.0¢$0-$25
Will Google have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of July 2026?Yes1093.0¢0.0¢$0-$3
Will Black Forest Labs have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of July 2026?Yes138.31.5¢0.0¢$0-$2
Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by December 31, 2026?No78.313¢0.0¢$0-$10
Anthropic’s “supply chain risk” designation removed by May 8?Yes602.813¢0.0¢$0-$81
Will any other model have the best AI model on May 16, 2026?Yes182.10.5¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by July 31?Yes1.8K11¢0.0¢$0-$196
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Yes1.3K72¢0.0¢$0-$949
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?Yes60019¢0.0¢$0-$114
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?Yes1.3K44¢0.0¢$0-$580
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 19, 2026?No492.643¢0.0¢$0-$212
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?No435.615¢0.0¢$0-$65
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Yes3K8.6¢0.0¢$0-$257
Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes555.61.8¢0.0¢$0-$10
Raptors vs. PistonsRaptors160.98.0¢0.0¢$0-$13
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?No2K1.6¢0.0¢$0-$33
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes59978¢0.0¢$0-$467
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Liquid70037¢0.0¢$0-$259
Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Yes736.434¢0.0¢$0-$251
Will Xiaomi be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Yes362.31.0¢0.0¢$0-$4
Will ByteDance be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Yes210.30.6¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Tencent be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Yes1.1K0.1¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?Yes440.38.8¢0.0¢$0-$39
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?Yes388.44.0¢0.0¢$0-$16
Will Alibaba have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?Yes68.70.2¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will DeepSeek have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?Yes396.10.2¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Yes12014¢0.0¢$0-$16
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Yes658.80.6¢0.0¢$0-$4
Will ByteDance be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Yes321.50.9¢0.0¢$0-$3
Will Tencent be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Yes5790.6¢0.0¢$0-$3
Will StepFun be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Yes482.60.1¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes292.244¢0.0¢$0-$128
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes58.7¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes175.741¢0.0¢$0-$72
Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Yes38328¢0.0¢$0-$107
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Yes154.662¢0.0¢$0-$97
Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes875.810.0¢0.0¢$0-$87
Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes304.984¢0.0¢$0-$255
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of August 2026?Yes508.912¢0.0¢$0-$62
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of August 2026?No450.37.8¢0.0¢$0-$35
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes81.340¢0.0¢$0-$33
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes3.2K15¢0.0¢$0-$487
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes4.8K5.7¢0.0¢$0-$276
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Yes1K12¢0.0¢$0-$120
Will ByteDance be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Yes174.80.3¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Yes809.20.1¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Yes8.7K3.3¢0.0¢$0-$284
Will DeepSeek have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Yes1K0.5¢0.0¢$0-$5
Will Google have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?Yes193.51.0¢0.0¢$0-$2
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes38612¢0.0¢$0-$48
Will ByteDance be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes3K0.9¢0.0¢$0-$27
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes157.455¢0.0¢$0-$87
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes1.5K0.2¢0.0¢$0-$3
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?Yes1K40¢0.0¢$0-$400
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes246.814¢0.0¢$0-$35
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes607.23.6¢0.0¢$0-$22
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Yes604.73.1¢0.0¢$0-$19
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes1.4K4.5¢0.0¢$0-$61
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?Yes23.60.4¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?Yes203.810¢0.0¢$0-$20
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes7.4K2.1¢0.0¢$0-$153
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?Yes2.3K6.6¢0.0¢$0-$155
Will Z.ai be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026?Yes1555.0¢0.0¢$0-$8
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 6, 2026?Yes1.4K2.5¢0.0¢$0-$34
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 13, 2026?Yes209.40.7¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 25, 2026?Yes74.43.7¢0.0¢$0-$3
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 26, 2026?Yes497.12.8¢0.0¢$0-$14
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 27, 2026?Yes709.95.9¢0.0¢$0-$42
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Yes4771.1¢0.0¢$0-$5
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Yes77.86.3¢0.0¢$0-$5
Will Alibaba have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Yes5003.7¢0.0¢$0-$18
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes6K28¢0.0¢$0-$1,680
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes12.7K1.1¢0.0¢$0-$134
Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes1.1K0.7¢0.0¢$0-$8
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026?Yes108.117¢0.0¢$0-$18
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 5, 2026?Yes786.317¢0.0¢$0-$134
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?Yes2K7.0¢0.0¢$0-$140
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes999.93.5¢0.0¢$0-$35
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes869.112¢0.0¢$0-$105
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes1K1.0¢0.0¢$0-$10
Will DeepSeek be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes563.50.4¢0.0¢$0-$2
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Yes14216¢0.0¢$0-$23
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?Yes722.853¢0.0¢$0-$382
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes1.2K9.5¢0.0¢$0-$115
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes700.814¢0.0¢$0-$101
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Yes50010¢0.0¢$0-$50
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes329.64.8¢0.0¢$0-$16
Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?Yes6392.1¢0.0¢$0-$13
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?Yes92512¢0.0¢$0-$111
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes1.5K6.9¢0.0¢$0-$103
Will SpaceXAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes1.5K0.1¢0.0¢$0-$2
Will DeepSeek be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes849.40.1¢0.0¢$0-$1
Does Ox Alpha belong to Mistral?Yes84.70.3¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of August 2026?Yes291.113¢0.0¢$0-$39
Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes462.422¢0.0¢$0-$103
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes447.844¢0.0¢$0-$199
Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of October 2026?Yes504.49.4¢0.0¢$0-$48
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?Yes3901.0¢0.0¢$0-$4
Will any other model be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?Yes491.218¢0.0¢$0-$87
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 22, 2026?Yes1606.0¢0.0¢$0-$10
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?Yes458.510.0¢0.0¢$0-$46
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?No949.16.9¢0.0¢$0-$65
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 14, 2026?Yes3007.8¢0.0¢$0-$23
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?Yes18512¢0.0¢$0-$23
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 8, 2026?Yes7101.5¢0.0¢$0-$11
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 9, 2026?Yes446.68.2¢0.0¢$0-$36
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?Yes1.9K15¢0.0¢$0-$286
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?No72221¢0.0¢$0-$152
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026?Yes21551¢0.0¢$0-$110
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?Yes12054¢0.0¢$0-$65
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes2075¢0.0¢$0-$15
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?Yes1.7K21¢0.0¢$0-$358
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?No4K6.0¢0.0¢$0-$240
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?No79220¢0.0¢$0-$160
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Yes2.9K0.5¢0.0¢$0-$16
Norway vs. England: Team to AdvanceNorway30032¢0.0¢$0-$95
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?Yes8806.6¢0.0¢$0-$58
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 17, 2026?Yes50010¢0.0¢$0-$50
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?No134.257¢0.0¢$0-$76
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 22, 2026?No550.325¢0.0¢$0-$137
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Yes442.231¢0.0¢$0-$138
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?Yes58520¢0.0¢$0-$118
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?Yes329.318¢0.0¢$0-$60
Gemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?Yes212.511¢0.0¢$0-$24
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Yes320.812¢0.0¢$0-$37
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No4.6K31¢0.0¢$0-$1,412
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes774.619¢0.0¢$0-$144
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?No1K7.0¢0.0¢$0-$70
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by December 31, 2026?No590.831¢0.0¢$0-$181
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Yes251.612¢0.0¢$0-$29
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by October 31?Yes3.1K17¢0.0¢$0-$534
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Yes3.7K16¢0.0¢$0-$600
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes318.473¢0.0¢$0-$232
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?No5001.9¢0.0¢$0-$9
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Morocco?Yes60028¢0.0¢$0-$168
Grok 4.6 released by August 12, 2026?No2.5K64¢0.0¢$0-$1,594
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?No122.967¢0.0¢$0-$82
Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?Yes571.47.4¢0.0¢$0-$42
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes1.2K72¢0.0¢$0-$864
Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026?Yes2K22¢0.0¢$0-$430
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?No1.743¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?Yes46017¢0.0¢$0-$78
Will Anthropic reset Claude usage limit by August 31?Yes299.416¢0.0¢$0-$49
Will the next Mythos-Class model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?No251.252¢0.0¢$0-$131
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ETDown579.932¢0.0¢$0-$186
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ETDown837.349¢0.0¢$0-$407
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Yes207.736¢0.0¢$0-$75
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?Yes916.35.1¢0.0¢$0-$47
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Yes0.36.2¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes10.6K0.2¢0.0¢$0-$21