Will Chris Van Hollen be the next Senate Majority Leader?
ActiveLiquidity $49.4K·Volume $28.3K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes8%No92%
Smart money leans
No
91% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
91%price91%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$304 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$563
Smart money entered93¢91¢at 16:21(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$49.4K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $304 riding on it.
The price of 91% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 93¢; the price was 91¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $304 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$563 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 16:21
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $237 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $237 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $47 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $26 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $26 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $0 |
| 5d ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 89¢ | $9 |