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elmcap2

ProbationPolymarket
0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5
Tracking since Nov 8, 2026 · bankroll $7.1M
Quality score
0
Newas of Nov 9, 2026
PnL 30d
+$249.8K
PnL 90d
+$325.2K
ROI 90d
+2%
on $13.9M deployed
Entry edge
51%
99 resolved markets
Volume 90d
$21.0M
15895 trades
Breadth 90d
349
distinct markets
Quality score — 90 days
Delayed 1h · as of 13:58
MarketOutcomeSizeAvg priceCurrentValuePnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No4.8M50¢82¢$3,916,375+$1.5M
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes4.8M50¢18¢$833,625-$1.5M
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No549.8K96¢98¢$540,762+$12.9K
Trump out as President before 2027?No404.6K93¢97¢$394,441+$17.4K
Xi Jinping out before 2027?No311.3K97¢98¢$305,824+$3,649
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No225.3K90¢99¢$222,079+$20.3K
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No213.1K94¢98¢$207,947+$8,106
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No170.1K97¢98¢$166,238+$1,530
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No70.1K97¢98¢$68,929+$887
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No51.5K90¢97¢$50,106+$3,888
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?No42.1K91¢98¢$41,303+$3,120
Modi out by December 31, 2026?No36K95¢99¢$35,434+$1,280
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No36.3K89¢95¢$34,478+$2,013
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No24.2K98¢99¢$23,961+$85
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No21.2K98¢99¢$20,904+$169
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?No20.7K63¢98¢$20,354+$7,217
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?No14.5K94¢98¢$14,178+$462
China x Japan military clash before 2027?No14.1K93¢98¢$13,811+$739
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?No13.8K96¢98¢$13,549+$349
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?No13.2K91¢98¢$12,888+$938
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?No10.8K89¢96¢$10,350+$784
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?No9.6K92¢97¢$9,294+$452
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?No9.5K95¢97¢$9,174+$193
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?No7.9K94¢93¢$7,312-$65
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?No7.1K95¢98¢$6,966+$208
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?No6.5K92¢97¢$6,334+$376
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes6.6K89¢95¢$6,260+$416
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?No6.1K90¢99¢$6,056+$533
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?No5.7K86¢97¢$5,522+$664
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?No5.6K92¢98¢$5,487+$339
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes5.5K94¢94¢$5,167+$10
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?No4.8K95¢98¢$4,718+$186
Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?No4.8K93¢96¢$4,554+$113
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?No4.2K85¢95¢$3,962+$433
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?No4K94¢99¢$3,942+$183
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?No4K86¢97¢$3,902+$466
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?No4K93¢98¢$3,889+$179
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?No3.8K88¢99¢$3,790+$394
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?No3.8K91¢97¢$3,677+$207
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?No4.1K84¢90¢$3,664+$239
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?No3K100¢100¢$2,987-$0
Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes3.1K91¢96¢$2,984+$152
Iran leadership change by November 30?No3K97¢98¢$2,927+$4
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes2.7K97¢98¢$2,645+$26
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?No2.5K97¢99¢$2,443+$48
Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026?No2.6K88¢93¢$2,427+$136
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?No2.5K93¢97¢$2,426+$96
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?No2.5K97¢95¢$2,384-$29
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?No2.3K93¢98¢$2,271+$116
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?No2.2K94¢97¢$2,150+$58
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?No2K87¢98¢$2,012+$240
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?No2K95¢98¢$1,955+$72
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?No2K92¢97¢$1,949+$106
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026?No1.9K92¢98¢$1,879+$120
Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?No1.7K85¢94¢$1,624+$165
Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026?No1.5K96¢99¢$1,499+$42
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?No1.4K97¢98¢$1,339+$23
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No1.3K98¢98¢$1,251+$1
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?No1.2K75¢96¢$1,173+$257
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes3.1K60¢38¢$1,171-$704
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?No1.2K97¢97¢$1,119+$9
Waymo IPO before 2027?No1.1K80¢98¢$1,048+$189
Obama arrested before 2027?No1K93¢99¢$988+$58
Will Lisa Cook be arrested before 2027?No1K94¢98¢$984+$44
Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026?No1K90¢98¢$983+$83
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?No1K80¢95¢$955+$155
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?No1K79¢95¢$953+$159
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?Yes2.2K52¢37¢$805-$329
Will QFEX launch a token by December 31, 2026?No67893¢98¢$664+$31
Phoebe Gates arrested by December 31?No479.795¢98¢$469+$13
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by November 30?No476.495¢98¢$468+$14
Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026?No47682¢92¢$438+$49
Will Ilhan Omar resign by December 31, 2026?No37398¢99¢$368+$2
Record crypto liquidation in 2026?No33290¢96¢$320+$20
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?No29998¢99¢$296+$1
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?Yes1.4K44¢16¢$237-$392
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?No216.198¢99¢$213+$1
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?No17892¢98¢$174+$11
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?No173.382¢98¢$169+$27
New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31, 2027?No158.388¢95¢$150+$11
Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026?No91.479¢89¢$81+$9
Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?No74.495¢95¢$71+$0
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy before 2027?No6392¢98¢$62+$4
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?No41.798¢98¢$41+$0
Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026?No22.897¢98¢$22+$0
Will Ventuals launch a token by December 31 2026?No18.896¢97¢$18+$0
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?No17.893¢98¢$17+$1
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes11.849¢9.5¢$1-$5
UFC Fight Night: Andre Petroski vs. Mantas Kondratavicius (Middleweight, Main Card)Mantas Kondratavicius7.5K75¢0.0¢$0-$5,625
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço (Heavyweight, Prelims)Gabriel Lorenço6K6.6¢0.0¢$0-$395
UFC Fight Night: Mitch Raposo vs. Marcos Degli (Flyweight, Prelims)Marcos Degli7.5K69¢0.0¢$0-$5,175