TailSlip
Log in

Command Palette

Search for a command to run...

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $130.3K·Volume $801.1K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:34computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$5,605 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered92¢98¢at 07:34(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$130.3K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $5,605 riding on it.

The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:34
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1w agothoodrMidBuyNo97¢$484
1w agoCarMidSellNo96¢$6,422
2w agoCarMidBuyNo96¢$1,601
2w agoCarMidSellNo97¢$3
2w agoCarMidSellNo97¢$180
2w agoCarMidSellNo96¢$1,424
2w agoCarMidSellNo96¢$3,183
2w agoCarMidBuyNo94¢$1,645
2w agoBunCaChamMidSellNo94¢$9,440
2w agoCarMidBuyNo94¢$452
2w agoBunCaChamMidBuyNo94¢$761
2w agoBunCaChamMidBuyNo94¢$8,407
2w agoBunCaChamMidBuyNo94¢$272
2w agoplumbisMidSellNo95¢$133
2w agoplumbisMidSellNo95¢$237
2w agoplumbisMidSellNo95¢$453
2w agoBunCaChamMidSellNo95¢$432
2w agoBunCaChamMidBuyNo95¢$432
2w agofbetMidSellNo95¢$1,449
2w agoStarMasterMidSellNo95¢$947
2w agofbetMidSellNo95¢$411
2w agofbetMidSellNo95¢$44
2w agoBunCaChamMidSellNo95¢$2,509
2w agoBunCaChamMidSellNo95¢$190
2w agoBunCaChamMidBuyNo95¢$2,699
2w agoCarMidBuyNo95¢$1,035
2w agoplumbisMidSellNo95¢$20
2w agoplumbisMidSellNo95¢$2,489
2w agoplumbisMidSellNo96¢$191
2w agoplumbisMidSellNo96¢$4,515
2w agoplumbisMidSellNo96¢$2,386
2w agoplumbisMidBuyNo95¢$7
2w agoplumbisMidBuyNo95¢$186
2w agoplumbisMidBuyNo95¢$1,013
2w agoplumbisMidBuyNo95¢$61
2w agoplumbisMidBuyNo95¢$1,778
2w agoplumbisMidBuyNo95¢$5
2w agoplumbisMidBuyNo95¢$586
2w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidSellNo96¢$1,911
2w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidSellNo96¢$3
2w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidSellNo96¢$2
2w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidSellNo96¢$2
2w agoCarMidBuyNo95¢$708
2w agoCarMidBuyNo95¢$291
2w agoCarMidBuyNo95¢$311
2w agoCarMidBuyNo95¢$194
2w agoCarMidBuyNo95¢$272
2w agoCarMidBuyNo95¢$19
2w agoCarMidBuyNo95¢$282
2w agoD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935MidSellNo96¢$35