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Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026?

ActiveLiquidity $49.3K·Volume $30.8K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes1%No99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:23computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,646 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$316
72h +$454
Smart money entered98¢99¢at 07:23(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy13h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$49.3K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,646 riding on it.

The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $1,646 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$316, +$454 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:23
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
13h agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo99¢$158
13h agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo99¢$158
2d agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo99¢$138
1w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo98¢$98
1w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo98¢$196
1w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo98¢$119
1w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo98¢$97
1w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo99¢$576
2w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo98¢$99
2w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo98¢$2
2w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo98¢$26
2w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo98¢$98
3w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo98¢$49
3w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo98¢$29
4w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo97¢$25
5w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo98¢$191
5w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo98¢$5
5w agoStarMasterMidSellNo97¢$78
5w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo98¢$1
6w agoStarMasterMidSellNo98¢$5
6w agoStarMasterMidSellNo99¢$15
6w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo98¢$10
6w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo98¢$90
6w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo98¢$106
7w agoStarMasterMidBuyYes1.9¢$3
7w agoStarMasterMidBuyYes1.7¢$13
7w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo97¢$97
8w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo96¢$289
8w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo97¢$97
8w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo97¢$97
8w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo97¢$97