Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $49.3K·Volume $30.8K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,646 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$316
72h +$454
Smart money entered98¢99¢at 07:23(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy13h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$49.3K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,646 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,646 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$316, +$454 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:23
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13h ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $158 |
| 13h ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $158 |
| 2d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $138 |
| 1w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $98 |
| 1w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $196 |
| 1w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $119 |
| 1w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $97 |
| 1w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Sell | No | 99¢ | $576 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $99 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $26 |
| 2w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $98 |
| 3w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $49 |
| 3w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $29 |
| 4w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $25 |
| 5w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $191 |
| 5w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $5 |
| 5w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $78 |
| 5w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $1 |
| 6w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $5 |
| 6w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 99¢ | $15 |
| 6w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $10 |
| 6w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $90 |
| 6w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $106 |
| 7w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $3 |
| 7w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $13 |
| 7w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $97 |
| 8w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $289 |
| 8w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $97 |
| 8w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $97 |
| 8w ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $97 |