Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $5,609·Volume $36.7K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes95%No5%
Smart money leans
Yes
95% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
95%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,304 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered80¢95¢at 07:28(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$5,609
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,304 riding on it.
The price of 95% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 80¢; the price was 95¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,304 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:28
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $23 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $20 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $5 |
| 2w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $42 |
| 4w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $18 |
| 4w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $1 |
| 4w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $28 |
| 4w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $56 |
| 9w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $17 |
| 10w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 85¢ | $4 |
| 12w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 87¢ | $219 |
| 12w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $139 |
| 12w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $85 |
| 12w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 85¢ | $43 |
| 12w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 81¢ | $114 |
| 12w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 85¢ | $5 |
| 12w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | Yes | 81¢ | $163 |
| 12w ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Buy | No | 27¢ | $28 |