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ethBELIVER

TopPolymarket
0x05f6cb63d4ffdfaecd7ad8acd0765b6f6a5a25a1
Tracking since Nov 8, 2026 · bankroll $279.5K
Quality score
0.573
Goodas of Nov 9, 2026
PnL 30d
+$86.1K
PnL 90d
+$310.6K
ROI 90d
+24%
on $1.3M deployed
Entry edge
53%
45 resolved markets
Volume 90d
$2.3M
3198 trades
Breadth 90d
88
distinct markets
Quality score — 90 days
Delayed 1h · as of 14:03
MarketOutcomeSizeAvg priceCurrentValuePnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No187.7K59¢91¢$171,730+$60.3K
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes32.4K71¢99¢$31,934+$8,934
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No24.7K70¢76¢$18,858+$1,534
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes17.9K70¢94¢$16,781+$4,278
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?No88.1K34¢14¢$12,779-$17.6K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?Yes5.3K50¢78¢$4,142+$1,515
Kash Patel out by December 31?No4.9K24¢80¢$3,979+$2,802
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No6.8K75¢52¢$3,552-$1,565
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes30.5K3.0¢11¢$3,430+$2,498
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes4.9K54¢50¢$2,427-$197
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Yes22.5K11¢9.4¢$2,115-$347
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No5.8K39¢30¢$1,754-$489
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?No1K46¢96¢$974+$508
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?No1K29¢79¢$807+$513
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?No36.7K13¢1.6¢$588-$4,269
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes29.7K14¢1.5¢$460-$3,564
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes88.1K0.5¢0.4¢$396-$38
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes10.7K24¢2.6¢$284-$2,291
Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes3.5K34¢8.0¢$277-$891
Iran leadership change by November 30?Yes6K9.0¢2.8¢$172-$371
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Yes4.3K20¢2.0¢$89-$793
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Yes70.39.0¢3.0¢$2-$4
Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Yes1.2K0.3¢0.0¢$1-$3
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?No5.89.0¢3.5¢$0-$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?Yes1.9K0.2¢0.0¢$0-$4
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Yes3.2K46¢0.0¢$0-$1,481
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No24K15¢0.0¢$0-$3,587
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?No3.8K2.8¢0.0¢$0-$103
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Yes1.5K53¢0.0¢$0-$809
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?No11K53¢0.0¢$0-$5,806
Iran leadership change by October 31?Yes9.3K6.0¢0.0¢$0-$560
Iran leadership change by June 30?Yes42.2K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?Yes4.3K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceBelgium11.2K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes0.10.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by December 31, 2026?No26.7K12¢0.0¢$0-$3,086
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No10.8K20¢0.0¢$0-$2,151
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Yes487.20.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?Yes782.20.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?Yes33.2K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Yes0.40.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Yes17.4K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?Yes953.20.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Yes20.5K3.7¢0.0¢$0-$752
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?No202.8K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes137.1K19¢0.0¢$0-$26.3K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes559K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Yes48.6K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?No45.8K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No524.70.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Yes66.7K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes138.2K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes210.1K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No300.40.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?Yes431.50.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?Yes52.7K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No107.3K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Yes6K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes6.3K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsNo18.4K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?Yes16.9K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?No26.1K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Yes16.7K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?No80.3K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Yes44.5K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?Yes34.6K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?No13.7K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?No40K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Yes66.3K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?Yes8.4K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes280K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?Yes13K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes15.9K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?Yes33.2K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No14.4K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?Yes1.4K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Yes4.6K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Trump visit China by June 30?No44.3K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?No0.80.0¢0.0¢$0$0
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?No12.7K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?No40.9K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?No13.4K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes8.2K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?Yes4680.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Yes5.8K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026Yes4.9K5.4¢0.0¢$0-$266
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026Yes10.1K12¢0.0¢$0-$1,194
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026Yes2.1K10¢0.0¢$0-$218
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026No43.5K51¢0.0¢$0-$22.2K
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes2.2K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?Yes506.80.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?Yes908.70.0¢0.0¢$0$0
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7?Up20K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?Yes3K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Yes1.2K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?No51.7K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?Yes24.6K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?Yes2.8K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%?Yes4.2K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and 2%?Yes652.90.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%?Yes7420.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?No317.113¢0.0¢$0-$41
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?No15.6K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?No16.2K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?Yes11.5K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?Yes20.5K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No8K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?Yes29.2K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Yes16.2K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?No5.9K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?No632.20.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?Yes844.10.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?No2.4K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Yes260.7K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?No1.4K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?Yes31.20.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes231.13.6¢0.0¢$0-$8
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Yes87.8K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes275.5K0.7¢0.0¢$0-$1,961
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes177.7K13¢0.0¢$0-$23.2K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?No193.4K3.7¢0.0¢$0-$7,170
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?No37.30.0¢0.0¢$0$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Yes45K1.6¢0.0¢$0-$720
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Yes48.2K5.0¢0.0¢$0-$2,411
Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes16K2.0¢0.0¢$0-$324
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes57.5K3.5¢0.0¢$0-$1,994
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?No13.6K33¢0.0¢$0-$4,493
Will TEAM VISION Win The International 2026?Yes2K59¢0.0¢$0-$1,155
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International PlayoffsIron Wing20K42¢0.0¢$0-$8,400
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Falcons23K45¢0.0¢$0-$10.4K
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Yandex79.3K32¢0.0¢$0-$25.0K
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International PlayoffsTEAM VISION8.8K56¢0.0¢$0-$4,921
Monterrey Open: Mayar Sherif vs Oleksandra OliynykovaMayar Sherif0.223¢0.0¢$0-$0
Monterrey Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Nikola BartunkovaAntonia Ruzic301.215¢0.0¢$0-$45
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports - Map 2 WinnerFUT Esports9.7K48¢0.0¢$0-$4,679
49ers vs. RaidersRaiders39.1K50¢0.0¢$0-$19.6K
Valorant: LOUD vs FURIA Esports - Map 1 WinnerFURIA Esports526.435¢0.0¢$0-$184
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group StageNatus Vincere55K63¢0.0¢$0-$34.4K
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No63.9K67¢0.0¢$0-$42.6K
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes89K0.2¢0.0¢$0-$217
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes43.9K72¢0.0¢$0-$31.5K