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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $317.1K·Volume $3.0M·Ends Dec 9, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 12:52computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
-0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
85%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$9,773 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,488
72h +$4,500
Smart money entered99¢100¢at 12:52Edge leftnoneLast smart buy11h agoResolvesin 29d(Dec 9, 2026)Liquidity$317.1K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $9,773 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 99¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot.

Note: only $9,773 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,488, +$4,500 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 12:52
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
4h agoethBELIVERTopSellYes0.5¢$2
4h agoethBELIVERTopSellYes0.5¢$3
4h agoethBELIVERTopSellYes0.5¢$2
4h agoethBELIVERTopSellYes0.5¢$3
4h agoethBELIVERTopSellYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopSellYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopSellYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopSellYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopSellYes0.5¢$1
4h agoethBELIVERTopSellYes0.5¢$1
4h agoethBELIVERTopSellYes0.5¢$1,101
4h agoethBELIVERTopSellYes0.5¢$1,101
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$1
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$1
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$2
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$4
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$1
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$2
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$1
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$4
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$5
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$5
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$5
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$5
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$3
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$2
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$19
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$19
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$2
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$3
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$64
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$64
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0
4h agoethBELIVERTopBuyYes0.5¢$0