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realbengvir

ProbationPolymarket
0xdef6f7b147246e2bab5422c7363cdebbfd54f69a
Tracking since Nov 8, 2026 · bankroll $179.0K
Quality score
0
Newas of Nov 9, 2026
PnL 30d
+$8,918
PnL 90d
+$47.6K
ROI 90d
+13%
on $360.8K deployed
Entry edge
53%
26 resolved markets
Volume 90d
$1.3M
941 trades
Breadth 90d
102
distinct markets
Quality score — 90 days
Delayed 1h · as of 12:54
MarketOutcomeSizeAvg priceCurrentValuePnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No94.4K99¢99¢$93,285+$65
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes20.9K87¢93¢$19,520+$1,420
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?No15.7K99¢100¢$15,680+$64
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No8.1K93¢98¢$7,935+$414
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?No11.6K58¢67¢$7,802+$1,084
Will GameStop acquire eBay?No6K93¢98¢$5,877+$297
Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by November 30?No4.8K100¢100¢$4,739+$1
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No3.8K77¢99¢$3,764+$815
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes10K47¢32¢$3,225-$1,435
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?No3.3K93¢98¢$3,220+$171
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No4.9K57¢66¢$3,182+$413
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?No2.1K91¢90¢$1,878-$14
Ebola pandemic in 2026?No1.8K98¢99¢$1,790+$4
Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for plague by December 31?No1.5K98¢99¢$1,463+$5
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?No3.7K29¢32¢$1,187+$121
Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?No1.1K98¢98¢$1,094-$2
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes3.2K78¢34¢$1,088-$1,445
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes5K13¢12¢$600-$50
US defaults on debt by 2027?No553.899¢99¢$550+$0
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?Yes1.6K43¢20¢$310-$371
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No30086¢88¢$263+$5
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes6.9K3.5¢3.7¢$259+$17
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?No20087¢86¢$171-$3
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?Yes3.3K8.0¢3.5¢$116-$149
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes2.4K6.0¢3.4¢$81-$62
Trump on $250 bill this year?No81.598¢98¢$80+$0
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes30014¢7.3¢$22-$21
Closer Governor Race: Georgia or Wisconsin?Georgia3063¢47¢$14-$5
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 1 WinnerBilibili Gaming28.543¢42¢$12-$0
Trump out as President before 2027?No5.296¢97¢$5+$0
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes40090¢1.1¢$4-$356
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?Yes1K38¢0.4¢$4-$383
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No4.974¢74¢$4-$0
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?No4.3K16¢0.1¢$2-$686
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?No3.7K20¢0.0¢$2-$734
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?No2.5K15¢0.0¢$1-$370
Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?Yes1.190¢93¢$1+$0
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?Yes2.1M0.1¢0.0¢$0-$2,124
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?No5.6K23¢0.0¢$0-$1,264
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 4 WinnerT15K47¢0.0¢$0-$2,350
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No778.919¢0.0¢$0-$148
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Yes2K13¢0.0¢$0-$260
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Yes253.979¢0.0¢$0-$200
Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes20K2.2¢0.0¢$0-$450
Titans vs. ColtsColts5157.0¢0.0¢$0-$36
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?No13.6K65¢0.0¢$0-$8,780
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ETUp541.73.7¢0.0¢$0-$20
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ETUp194.415¢0.0¢$0-$30
LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 - Game 4 WinnerKarmine Corp20K29¢0.0¢$0-$5,796
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 1 WinnerT129.445¢0.0¢$0-$13
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?No0.12.1¢0.0¢$0-$0