Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?
ActiveLiquidity $133.4K·Volume $188.5K·Ends Dec 1, 2026
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
96%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$15.8K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$1,110
Smart money entered95¢97¢at 14:44(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 21d(Dec 1, 2026)Liquidity$133.4K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $15.8K riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 95¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $15.8K of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$1,110 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 14:44
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | No | 96¢ | $374 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | No | 95¢ | $722 |
| 4d ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $48 |
| 4d ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $4,145 |
| 5d ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $2,199 |
| 5d ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $1,920 |
| 1w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 92¢ | $110 |
| 1w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 92¢ | $368 |
| 1w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 92¢ | $276 |
| 1w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $4,650 |
| 1w ago | thoodrTop | Buy | No | 95¢ | $950 |
| 2w ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $403 |
| 3w ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $200 |
| 3w ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $600 |
| 3w ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $1,000 |