| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | Yes | 86.5K | 33¢ | 98¢ | $85,193 | +$56.3K |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes | 76.6K | 52¢ | 69¢ | $52,440 | +$12.9K |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes | 30.3K | 77¢ | 95¢ | $28,861 | +$5,464 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 30.6K | 86¢ | 88¢ | $26,739 | +$458 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes | 24.6K | 62¢ | 85¢ | $21,030 | +$5,888 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 274.1K | 2.3¢ | 4.4¢ | $12,059 | +$5,689 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 102.6K | 25¢ | 11¢ | $11,281 | -$14.4K |
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 13.5K | 57¢ | 67¢ | $9,087 | +$1,448 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes | 103.7K | 8.6¢ | 5.0¢ | $5,235 | -$3,737 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? | Yes | 5.8K | 72¢ | 90¢ | $5,223 | +$1,087 |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 45.6K | 51¢ | 7.5¢ | $3,420 | -$19.6K |
| Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Yes | 20.3K | 17¢ | 13¢ | $2,638 | -$741 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026? | Yes | 1.9K | 52¢ | 95¢ | $1,786 | +$800 |
| Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Yes | 16.5K | 15¢ | 8.5¢ | $1,400 | -$1,109 |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes | 21.9K | 16¢ | 6.0¢ | $1,315 | -$2,290 |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Yes | 7.4K | 12¢ | 12¢ | $925 | +$32 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | Yes | 9.9K | 19¢ | 8.0¢ | $793 | -$1,084 |
| Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | Yes | 26.4K | 14¢ | 1.3¢ | $357 | -$3,376 |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | No | 19.9K | 13¢ | 1.3¢ | $258 | -$2,325 |
| Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | No | 2.3K | 71¢ | 8.5¢ | $195 | -$1,434 |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | Yes | 1.5K | 5.7¢ | 6.3¢ | $94 | +$10 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 100 | 20¢ | 21¢ | $21 | +$1 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 0.2 | 12¢ | 98¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 0.2 | 40¢ | 6.5¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 9.4K | 21¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,973 |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? | Yes | 4K | 1.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$71 |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Yes | 526.5 | 3.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$17 |
| Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | Yes | 30.1K | 5.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,590 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 8.7K | 40¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3,479 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? | Yes | 10.2 | 2.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | Yes | 9.8K | 78¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$7,640 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? | No | 2.1K | 39¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$838 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Yes | 217.9K | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10.9K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? | Yes | 1.4K | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$201 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | No | 47.8K | 4.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2,013 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 66.2K | 2.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,572 |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | No | 134.9K | 5.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$7,901 |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? | Yes | 101.8K | 4.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4,461 |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate? | Yes | 32.9K | 2.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$678 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | No | 23.3K | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2,451 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 84.4K | 32¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$26.8K |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | No | 205.1K | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$24.8K |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate? | Yes | 25.1K | 3.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$925 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 157.6K | 5.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$9,250 |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on July 19? | Yes | 1K | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$123 |
| Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | Yes | 1.9K | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$661 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? | Yes | 37.4K | 9.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3,638 |
| Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | Yes | 3K | 3.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$99 |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | Yes | 26.2K | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$8,848 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 1.2M | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$151.7K |
| US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | Yes | 4.2K | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,001 |
| Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | No | 150.2K | 36¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$53.4K |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 60 | 49¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$29 |
| Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? | Yes | 70 | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$20 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.1 | 42¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | Yes | 32.9K | 9.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2,964 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | Yes | 15.9K | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2,156 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 255K | 0.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,909 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes | 300K | 0.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2,700 |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | Yes | 35.9K | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$7,183 |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | No | 27.9K | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2,981 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 137.4K | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$16.8K |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | No | 10K | 33¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3,300 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 333.6K | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$72.6K |
| Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? | Yes | 23.2K | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3,593 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes | 40K | 56¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$22.3K |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 109.3K | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$12.8K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | Yes | 341.6K | 8.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$30.1K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 172.6K | 0.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,032 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Yes | 265K | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$58.2K |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 176.5K | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$20.2K |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | Yes | 58.3K | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$6,206 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | Yes | 15.1K | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$750 |