| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 8.2K | 50¢ | 87¢ | $7,147 | +$3,047 |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026? | No | 6.3K | 71¢ | 96¢ | $6,019 | +$1,553 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | No | 4.7K | 6.0¢ | 94¢ | $4,481 | +$4,197 |
| Will there be no next Grok model (4.8+) release by November 30, 2026? | No | 3.5K | 65¢ | 89¢ | $3,099 | +$824 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher? | Yes | 2.1K | 35¢ | 88¢ | $1,847 | +$1,104 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher? | Yes | 1.4K | 89¢ | 98¢ | $1,416 | +$133 |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? | No | 1.4K | 65¢ | 85¢ | $1,210 | +$278 |
| Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 1.3K | 74¢ | 82¢ | $1,082 | +$110 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 8.2K | 50¢ | 13¢ | $1,054 | -$3,047 |
| Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027? | No | 1K | 97¢ | 99¢ | $1,024 | +$25 |
| Will Gemini Hydrogen debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher? | Yes | 840.1 | 78¢ | 99¢ | $835 | +$178 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 940.2 | 32¢ | 85¢ | $795 | +$494 |
| Will Iran target Oman by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 836.9 | 60¢ | 93¢ | $780 | +$278 |
| Will Gemini Krypton debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? | Yes | 1.1K | 69¢ | 74¢ | $774 | +$50 |
| Will Gemini Hydrogen debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 50% or higher? | Yes | 806.6 | 31¢ | 83¢ | $674 | +$427 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | No | 829.3 | 53¢ | 71¢ | $585 | +$147 |
| Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 465 | 72¢ | 92¢ | $425 | +$90 |
| Will Gemini Hydrogen debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 30% or higher? | Yes | 425.7 | 85¢ | 98¢ | $417 | +$54 |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? | No | 906 | 40¢ | 37¢ | $335 | -$24 |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026? | Yes | 511 | 12¢ | 61¢ | $311 | +$251 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 302.1 | 73¢ | 90¢ | $273 | +$54 |
| Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027? | No | 266.9 | 73¢ | 83¢ | $222 | +$28 |
| Jensen Huang admits to another affair by December 31? | No | 341.7 | 63¢ | 48¢ | $162 | -$53 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470? | No | 144.8 | 60¢ | 95¢ | $138 | +$51 |
| Jonathan Majors as Kang? | No | 120 | 93¢ | 93¢ | $111 | -$0 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026? | No | 60 | 19¢ | 100¢ | $60 | +$48 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | No | 65 | 70¢ | 84¢ | $55 | +$9 |
| Will GPT Sol's output price be at or above $20 in 2026? | No | 20 | 49¢ | 99¢ | $20 | +$10 |
| Will there be no next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) release by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 10 | 89¢ | 90¢ | $9 | +$0 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 5.1 | 99¢ | 99¢ | $5 | +$0 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026? | Yes | 149.8 | 21¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$31 |
| Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026? | Yes | 580.1 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$116 |
| Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 4, 2026? | Yes | 211 | 0.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026? | Yes | 169 | 76¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$128 |
| Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31? | Yes | 988.5 | 66¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$652 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 5, 2026? | Yes | 232 | 2.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$5 |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? | No | 1.2K | 61¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$748 |
| Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 3, 2026? | Yes | 138 | 0.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 5, 2026? | Yes | 150 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 660 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$133 |
| US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by October 31, 2026? | No | 572 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$173 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026? | Yes | 380.8 | 23¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$87 |