Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?
ActiveLiquidity $77.5K·Volume $111.9K·Ends Jan 1, 2030
Price now:Yes67%No34%
Smart money leans
No
34% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
34%price34%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,164 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered53¢34¢at Nov 10, 21:16(0% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 1147d(Jan 1, 2030)Liquidity$77.5K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,164 riding on it.
The price of 34% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 53¢; the price was 34¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,164 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of Nov 10, 21:16
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | Yes | 62¢ | $797 |
| 3w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 51¢ | $409 |
| 5w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 28¢ | $107 |
| 5w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 43¢ | $164 |
| 6w ago | flawfenceTop | Buy | No | 52¢ | $624 |
| 7w ago | flawfenceTop | Buy | No | 54¢ | $1,248 |
| 7w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $230 |
| 7w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $6 |
| 7w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 46¢ | $6 |
| 7w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | Yes | 53¢ | $5 |
| 7w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | Yes | 53¢ | $16 |
| 7w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 47¢ | $31 |