Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $84.8K·Volume $385.6K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
No
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$44.5K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$2,327
72h +$3,315
Smart money entered95¢97¢at 11:44(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy10h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$84.8K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $44.5K riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 95¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$2,327, +$3,315 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:44
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10h ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $1,164 |
| 10h ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $1,164 |
| 3d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $990 |
| 3d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $971 |
| 3d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $952 |
| 3d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $274 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $10 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $10 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $10 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $7 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $10 |
| 4d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $5 |