Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $27.8K·Volume $105.7K·Ends Dec 31, 2026
Price now:Yes30%No70%
Smart money leans
No
69% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
66%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
69%price69%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,968 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$545
Smart money entered72¢69¢at 07:45(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 51d(Dec 31, 2026)Liquidity$27.8K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are somewhat betting on "No", with $1,968 riding on it.
The price of 69% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 72¢; the price was 69¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,968 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$545 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:45
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $21 |
| 1h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $21 |
| 1h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $18 |
| 1h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $18 |
| 11h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $6 |
| 11h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $39 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $39 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $97 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $97 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $126 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $39 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $39 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 33¢ | $126 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $78 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $78 |
| 1d ago | troimMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $7 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $10 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 18¢ | $22 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 18¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 17¢ | $21 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 18¢ | $13 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 18¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 17¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 17¢ | $7 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 17¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 17¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 16¢ | $36 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $31 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $11 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $59 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $70 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $36 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $69 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $31 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $6 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $7 |
| 4w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $266 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 17¢ | $26 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 18¢ | $22 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 16¢ | $0 |