Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
ActiveLiquidity $14.3K·Volume $48.1K·Ends Apr 18, 2027
Price now:Yes26%No75%
Smart money leans
No
75% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
75%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
75%price75%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$1,146 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered68¢75¢at 17:12(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4d agoResolvesin 158d(Apr 18, 2027)Liquidity$14.3K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $1,146 riding on it.
The price of 75% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 68¢; the price was 75¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Delayed 1h · as of 17:12
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 74¢ | $60 |
| 5d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $51 |
| 6d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $7 |
| 6d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $66 |
| 2w ago | ThanksGivingTurkey1001Mid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $309 |
| 4w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 42¢ | $41 |
| 5w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 42¢ | $1 |
| 5w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $14 |
| 5w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $4 |
| 5w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $18 |
| 5w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $5 |
| 5w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 49¢ | $3 |
| 5w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 49¢ | $39 |
| 5w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $26 |
| 6w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 53¢ | $124 |
| 6w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $14 |
| 6w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 49¢ | $35 |
| 6w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 57¢ | $0 |
| 6w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 57¢ | $0 |
| 6w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 57¢ | $57 |
| 6w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 58¢ | $51 |
| 6w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 58¢ | $7 |
| 7w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 58¢ | $58 |
| 7w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 59¢ | $59 |
| 7w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 60¢ | $8 |
| 8w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 61¢ | $61 |
| 10w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 74¢ | $10 |
| 10w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Sell | No | 74¢ | $88 |
| 13w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 68¢ | $24 |
| 13w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 68¢ | $36 |