Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $46.8K·Volume $548.0K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes100%No0%
Smart money leans
Yes
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
60%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$0 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$4,355
72h +$9,002
Smart money entered99¢100¢at 07:27(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy23h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$46.8K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are somewhat betting on "Yes", with $0 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 99¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$4,355, +$9,002 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:27
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23h ago | scoutMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $2,173 |
| 23h ago | scoutMid | Buy | Yes | 100¢ | $2,173 |
| 1d ago | kinderSmanMid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $1,841 |
| 1d ago | kinderSmanMid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $1,841 |
| 1d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | kinderSmanMid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $217 |
| 1d ago | kinderSmanMid | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $217 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $473 |
| 4d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | Yes | 97¢ | $541 |
| 6d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 4.0¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 4.0¢ | $40 |
| 6d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 4.0¢ | $36 |
| 6d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 4.0¢ | $80 |
| 6d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 5.0¢ | $4 |
| 6d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 5.0¢ | $5 |
| 6d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $133 |
| 6d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $617 |
| 6d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 5.0¢ | $29 |
| 6d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | Yes | 93¢ | $44 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 5.0¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 5.0¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 5.0¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 5.0¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 92¢ | $207 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 92¢ | $894 |
| 1w ago | Voland6777Mid | Sell | No | 8.0¢ | $78 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | Yes | 91¢ | $298 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | Yes | 91¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | Yes | 92¢ | $828 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 92¢ | $727 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 8.0¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 8.0¢ | $32 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 9.0¢ | $43 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $1,332 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 9.0¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 81¢ | $1,443 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 24¢ | $16 |
| 1w ago | eCashTop | Sell | Yes | 79¢ | $298 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 21¢ | $70 |
| 1w ago | Voland6777Mid | Buy | No | 17¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 20¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 20¢ | $37 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 85¢ | $2,305 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 15¢ | $105 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 10¢ | $26 |
| 1w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | No | 10¢ | $22 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $692 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | Yes | 89¢ | $606 |