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Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $27.4K·Volume $913.4K·Ends Dec 31, 2026
Price now:Yes90%No10%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 12:52computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
90% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
90%price90%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$19.1K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$1,426
Smart money entered82¢90¢at 12:52(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 51d(Dec 31, 2026)Liquidity$27.4K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $19.1K riding on it.

The price of 90% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 82¢; the price was 90¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $19.1K of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$1,426 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 12:52
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d agononkenny90TopBuyYes88¢$522
1d agononkenny90TopBuyYes87¢$676
1d agononkenny90TopBuyYes86¢$26
1d agononkenny90TopBuyYes88¢$11
1d agononkenny90TopBuyYes88¢$65
1d agononkenny90TopBuyYes88¢$55
1d agononkenny90TopBuyYes88¢$15
2d agononkenny90TopBuyYes88¢$15
3d agononkenny90TopBuyYes87¢$95
3d agononkenny90TopBuyYes87¢$100
4d agononkenny90TopBuyYes87¢$2
4d agononkenny90TopBuyYes87¢$4
4d agononkenny90TopBuyYes87¢$201
4d agononkenny90TopBuyYes87¢$380
6d agononkenny90TopBuyYes85¢$3,400
6d agononkenny90TopBuyYes84¢$1,547
6d agononkenny90TopBuyYes83¢$381
6d agononkenny90TopBuyYes84¢$319
1w agononkenny90TopBuyYes80¢$144
1w agononkenny90TopBuyYes80¢$175
1w agoTenebrus7TopSellNo21¢$103
1w agononkenny90TopBuyYes81¢$1,800
1w agononkenny90TopBuyYes80¢$1,778
1w agononkenny90TopBuyYes81¢$0
3w agomr.oziTopSellYes82¢$2,213
4w agononkenny90TopBuyYes82¢$9
4w agononkenny90TopBuyYes82¢$41
4w agononkenny90TopBuyYes82¢$1
4w agononkenny90TopBuyYes83¢$254
4w agononkenny90TopBuyYes83¢$125
4w agononkenny90TopBuyYes83¢$244
4w agononkenny90TopBuyYes83¢$374
4w agononkenny90TopBuyYes82¢$1
4w agononkenny90TopBuyYes83¢$395
4w agononkenny90TopBuyYes82¢$23
4w agononkenny90TopBuyYes82¢$41
4w agononkenny90TopBuyYes83¢$9
4w agononkenny90TopBuyYes82¢$37
4w agononkenny90TopBuyYes83¢$397
4w agononkenny90TopBuyYes82¢$8
5w agononkenny90TopBuyYes83¢$410
5w agononkenny90TopBuyYes84¢$329
5w agononkenny90TopBuyYes83¢$79
5w agononkenny90TopBuyYes84¢$42
5w agononkenny90TopBuyYes84¢$188
5w agononkenny90TopBuyYes83¢$42
5w agononkenny90TopBuyYes83¢$13
7w agomr.oziTopSellYes83¢$166
7w agomr.oziTopSellYes83¢$15
7w agomr.oziTopSellYes83¢$28