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Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $77.2K·Volume $377.5K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes25%No76%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 22:12computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
76% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
76%price76%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$4,686 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$485
Smart money entered70¢76¢at 22:12(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$77.2K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $4,686 riding on it.

The price of 76% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 70¢; the price was 76¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $4,686 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$485 on this position.

Delayed 1h · as of 22:12
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo69¢$443
2d agoklli27MidSellNo62¢$61
2d agoklli27MidSellNo66¢$614
2d agoklli27MidBuyNo71¢$3,133
2d agoklli27MidBuyYes31¢$1,043
2d agoklli27MidBuyYes31¢$6
3d agoklli27MidBuyNo72¢$72
3d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo73¢$151
3d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo73¢$181
3d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo73¢$172
3d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo73¢$89
3d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo73¢$89
3d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo73¢$16
3d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo73¢$16
3d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo72¢$266
3d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo72¢$207
3d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo72¢$45
3d agoklli27MidBuyYes29¢$29
3d agoklli27MidBuyNo73¢$73
3d agoklli27MidBuyYes29¢$29
3d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo68¢$14
3d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo68¢$6
3d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo68¢$10
3d agoRdogTestTopBuyNo68¢$10
4d agoRdogTestTopSellNo65¢$4
1w agoTenebrus7TopSellNo72¢$360
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo70¢$14
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo70¢$14
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo70¢$65
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo70¢$65
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo67¢$58
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo67¢$58
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo67¢$6
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo67¢$6
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo67¢$4
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo67¢$121
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo67¢$70
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo65¢$180
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo65¢$180
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo64¢$4
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo64¢$4
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo64¢$18
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo64¢$38
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo74¢$28
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo74¢$28
2w agoRdogTestTopSellNo68¢$44
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo72¢$27
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo72¢$27
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo71¢$57
2w agoRdogTestTopBuyNo71¢$11