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Will the FAA's nationwide ground stop be lifted by November 13, 9:00 PM ET?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $8,581·Volume $23.2K·Ends Nov 14, 2026
Price now:Yes100%No0%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 01:52computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
95% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
99%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
95%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
8
$12.7K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$25.8K
72h +$25.8K
Smart money entered86¢95¢at 01:52(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesended(Nov 14, 2026)Liquidity$8,581
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

8 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $12.7K riding on it.

The price of 95% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 86¢; the price was 95¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$25.8K, +$25.8K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 01:52
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1h agoCarMidSellYes100¢$131
1h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes100¢$200
1h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes100¢$119
1h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes100¢$119
1h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes100¢$2
1h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes100¢$19
1h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes100¢$2
1h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes100¢$19
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidSellYes99¢$718
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidSellYes99¢$718
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidSellYes99¢$121
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidSellYes99¢$121
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidSellYes99¢$121
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidSellYes99¢$121
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidSellYes98¢$980
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidSellYes98¢$980
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidSellYes97¢$234
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidSellYes97¢$1,658
1h ago0x8442…9df5MidBuyYes97¢$49
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidSellYes97¢$49
1h ago0x8442…9df5MidBuyYes97¢$49
1h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes95¢$855
1h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes95¢$855
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidSellYes95¢$855
1h ago0x8442…9df5MidBuyYes95¢$95
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidSellYes95¢$95
1h ago0x8442…9df5MidBuyYes95¢$95
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidBuyYes96¢$24
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidBuyYes96¢$24
1h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes97¢$194
1h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes97¢$195
1h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes98¢$195
1h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes98¢$25
1h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes98¢$172
1h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes98¢$196
1h agonnimroddMidBuyNo3.1¢$15
1h agonnimroddMidBuyNo3.1¢$15
1h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes97¢$194
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidBuyYes96¢$3
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidBuyYes96¢$152
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidBuyYes96¢$138
1h ago0x2b0b…3cfcMidBuyYes96¢$591
1h agoCarMidBuyNo1.3¢$0
1h agoCarMidBuyNo1.3¢$1
1h agoHumble-MonkTopSellNo1.5¢$31
1h agoHumble-MonkTopSellNo1.5¢$31
1h agoWordleAddictMidSellYes99¢$1,694
1h agoWordleAddictMidSellYes99¢$1,694
1h agoWordleAddictMidSellYes99¢$23
1h agoWordleAddictMidSellYes99¢$23