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Will the FAA's nationwide ground stop be lifted by November 13, 8:00 PM ET?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $4,619·Volume $252.1K·Ends Nov 14, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 01:52computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
99%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$1,341 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$1,999
72h +$1,999
Smart money entered82¢100¢at 01:52(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 14, 2026)Liquidity$4,619
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $1,341 riding on it.

The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 82¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $1,341 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$1,999, +$1,999 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 01:52
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1h agoCarMidSellYes0.1¢$1
1h agoCarMidSellYes0.1¢$1
1h agoCarMidSellYes0.3¢$1
1h agoCarMidSellYes0.3¢$1
1h agoCarMidSellYes0.3¢$1
1h agoCarMidSellYes0.3¢$1
1h agoCarMidSellYes0.3¢$1
1h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes0.3¢$1
2h agosmellyEllieMidBuyYes4.0¢$42
2h agosmellyEllieMidBuyYes4.0¢$42
2h agoCarMidBuyYes5.0¢$1
2h ago0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642TopSellYes6.0¢$142
2h ago0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642TopSellYes6.0¢$142
2h agoCarMidBuyYes6.0¢$1
2h ago0x8296…b820MidBuyYes7.0¢$50
2h ago0x8296…b820MidBuyYes7.0¢$50
2h agoCarMidSellYes7.0¢$50
2h ago0xa099…99a7MidBuyNo94¢$165
2h ago0xa099…99a7MidBuyNo94¢$165
2h agoCarMidSellYes7.0¢$78
2h agoCarMidSellYes6.0¢$47
2h agoCarMidSellYes6.0¢$20
2h agoCarMidSellYes6.0¢$20
2h agosmellyEllieMidBuyYes8.0¢$1
2h agosmellyEllieMidBuyYes8.0¢$0
2h agosmellyEllieMidBuyYes8.0¢$2
2h agoCarMidSellYes9.0¢$100
2h agosmellyEllieMidBuyYes8.0¢$1
2h agosmellyEllieMidBuyYes8.0¢$15
2h agoCarMidBuyYes9.0¢$20
2h agoCarMidBuyYes9.0¢$18
2h agoCarMidBuyYes9.0¢$18
2h agoCarMidBuyYes9.0¢$20
2h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes14¢$233
2h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes16¢$8
2h agoMineYoursMidSellYes17¢$3
2h agoMineYoursMidSellYes16¢$8
2h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes13¢$20
3h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes13¢$7
3h agoMineYoursMidBuyYes13¢$7
3h agoCarMidBuyYes10¢$10
3h agoCarMidBuyYes10¢$10
3h agoCarMidSellYes21¢$43
3h agoCarMidSellYes20¢$44
3h agoCarMidSellYes21¢$4
3h agoGrokEnjoyerMidBuyNo84¢$880
3h ago0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642TopSellYes13¢$43
3h ago0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642TopSellYes13¢$43
3h ago0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642TopSellYes12¢$40
3h ago0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642TopSellYes12¢$40