Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $19.6K·Volume $29.6K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes5%No96%
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$7,107 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$1,081
Smart money entered87¢96¢at 17:11(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 50d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$19.6K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $7,107 riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 87¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $7,107 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$1,081 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 17:11
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $1 |
| 2d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $1,011 |
| 3d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $17 |
| 4d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $74 |
| 6d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 90¢ | $896 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 89¢ | $342 |
| 6d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $335 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $452 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $115 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $1 |
| 10w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $1,342 |
| 10w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $563 |
| 10w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $2,107 |