Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $74.5K·Volume $836.1K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes5%No95%
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
97%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$8,640 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$549
72h +$1,864
Smart money entered87¢96¢at 04:54(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy12h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$74.5K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $8,640 riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 87¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$549, +$1,864 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 04:54
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12h ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $40 |
| 15h ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $141 |
| 15h ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $141 |
| 15h ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $5 |
| 17h ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $19 |
| 17h ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $19 |
| 18h ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $86 |
| 18h ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $86 |
| 1d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $72 |
| 1d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $72 |
| 1d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $866 |
| 1d ago | stupid22Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $282 |
| 3w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $145 |
| 3w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $50 |
| 3w ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $55 |
| 3w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 6.0¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 6.0¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 6.0¢ | $12 |
| 3w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 6.0¢ | $3 |
| 5w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $483 |
| 5w ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $81 |
| 5w ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 91¢ | $546 |
| 7w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $162 |
| 8w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $495 |
| 8w ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | Yes | 8.0¢ | $50 |
| 8w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $47 |
| 8w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $28 |
| 8w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $16 |
| 8w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $5 |
| 8w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 93¢ | $177 |
| 9w ago | dsoperativeTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $882 |
| 9w ago | dsoperativeTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $18 |