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Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

ActiveLiquidity $231.2K·Volume $14.6M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes1%No99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 02:42computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
1% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
1%price1%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$2,071 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$87
72h +$93
Smart money entered1.4¢1.5¢at 02:42(19% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy20h agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$231.2K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $2,071 riding on it.

The price of 1% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 1.4¢; the price was 1.5¢ at this snapshot — roughly 19% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $2,071 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$87, +$93 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 02:42
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
20h agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$42
20h agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$42
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
2d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
2d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$1
2d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
2d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
3d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
3d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.4¢$0
4d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.1¢$0
4d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.1¢$0
4d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.1¢$1
4d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.1¢$1
4d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.1¢$1
4d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.1¢$0
4d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.1¢$1
4d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.1¢$1
4d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.1¢$1
4d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.1¢$1
4d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.1¢$1
4d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.1¢$1
4d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.1¢$4
4d agolastminwinMidBuyYes1.1¢$1