Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
ActiveLiquidity $1,196·Volume $42.3K·Ends Mar 15, 2027
Price now:Yes50%No50%
Smart money leans
Yes
49% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
87%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
49%price49%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$510 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered60¢49¢at 04:19(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy4d agoResolvesin 124d(Mar 15, 2027)Liquidity$1,196
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $510 riding on it.
The price of 49% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 60¢; the price was 49¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $510 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 04:19
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 54¢ | $50 |
| 1w ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 53¢ | $132 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 61¢ | $61 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 61¢ | $29 |
| 4w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 65¢ | $114 |