Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $5,200·Volume $16.6K·Ends Nov 16, 2026
Price now:Yes59%No41%
Smart money leans
No
45% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
45%price45%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$981 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$184
Smart money entered88¢45¢at 22:42(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 5d(Nov 16, 2026)Liquidity$5,200
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $981 riding on it.
The price of 45% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 88¢; the price was 45¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $981 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$184 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 22:42
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | No | 40¢ | $6 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | No | 87¢ | $339 |
| 4d ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | No | 92¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | No | 92¢ | $317 |
| 5d ago | nonkenny90Top | Buy | No | 88¢ | $1,237 |