Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
ActiveLiquidity $13.7K·Volume $38.2K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
84%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$480 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h -$71
Smart money entered46¢99¢at 04:16(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$13.7K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $480 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 46¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $480 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have trimmed -$71 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 04:16