Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?
ActiveLiquidity $15.7K·Volume $109.5K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
73%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$288 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered96¢98¢at 03:26(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$15.7K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "No", with $288 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 96¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $288 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 03:26
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $38 |
| 4d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $226 |
| 4d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $25 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 55¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 55¢ | $50 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 55¢ | $35 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 55¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | No | 54¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 13¢ | $24 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | Yes | 97¢ | $4 |
| 6w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $1,428 |