Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?
ActiveLiquidity $22.9K·Volume $143.8K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes100%No0%
Smart money leans
Yes
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$2,291 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$175
Smart money entered48¢100¢at 02:40(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$22.9K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $2,291 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 48¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $2,291 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$175 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:40
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $50 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $122 |
| 3d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 98¢ | $49 |
| 4d ago | Crypto-JoeTop | Sell | No | 0.2¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | mrworldwideTop | Sell | No | 0.9¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | mrworldwideTop | Sell | No | 0.5¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | Crypto-JoeTop | Buy | No | 6.0¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGMid | Buy | No | 3.4¢ | $26 |
| 4d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 1.5¢ | $4 |
| 5d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | No | 2.7¢ | $0 |
| 5d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Sell | No | 2.7¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | No | 26¢ | $20 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | No | 26¢ | $155 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 72¢ | $1,009 |
| 6d ago | iWasEnoughMid | Sell | Yes | 21¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 23¢ | $325 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Sell | Yes | 11¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Sell | Yes | 11¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Sell | Yes | 11¢ | $33 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Sell | Yes | 11¢ | $59 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Sell | Yes | 11¢ | $12 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Sell | Yes | 11¢ | $23 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Sell | Yes | 11¢ | $20 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Sell | Yes | 11¢ | $12 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Sell | Yes | 11¢ | $42 |
| 6d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 74¢ | $155 |
| 6d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 79¢ | $16 |
| 6d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $39 |
| 6d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $19 |
| 6d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $54 |
| 6d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $107 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $20 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 44¢ | $4 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 44¢ | $16 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 44¢ | $11 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 44¢ | $36 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 44¢ | $4 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 44¢ | $11 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 44¢ | $358 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 62¢ | $515 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 62¢ | $9 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 62¢ | $11 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 62¢ | $9 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 62¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 62¢ | $6 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 62¢ | $11 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 62¢ | $37 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 62¢ | $2 |