Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
ActiveLiquidity $66.0K·Volume $122.4K·Ends Jan 1, 2028
Price now:Yes20%No81%
Smart money leans
No
80% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
99%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
80%price80%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$5,628 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$395
72h +$845
Smart money entered73¢80¢at 06:43(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy8h agoResolvesin 416d(Jan 1, 2028)Liquidity$66.0K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $5,628 riding on it.
The price of 80% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 73¢; the price was 80¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$395, +$845 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:43
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8h ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 81¢ | $200 |
| 8h ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 81¢ | $200 |
| 1d ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 81¢ | $228 |
| 1d ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 81¢ | $228 |
| 6d ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $185 |
| 6d ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $146 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $26 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $11 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $14 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $145 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $38 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $284 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $12 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 74¢ | $583 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $14 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 74¢ | $464 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 72¢ | $158 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $370 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 74¢ | $74 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 74¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 74¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 74¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 74¢ | $279 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 73¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 73¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 73¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 73¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 73¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 73¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 73¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 73¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 73¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 73¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 73¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 73¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 73¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 73¢ | $359 |
| 1w ago | Rafael88Top | Buy | No | 73¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 69¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 69¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 69¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 69¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 69¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $1,044 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 52¢ | $1,010 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 66¢ | $462 |
| 1w ago | eCashTop | Buy | No | 70¢ | $358 |