Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%?
ActiveLiquidity $38.5K·Volume $90.2K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes88%No13%
Smart money leans
Yes
90% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
90%price90%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$3,215 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered73¢90¢at 11:50(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$38.5K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $3,215 riding on it.
The price of 90% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 73¢; the price was 90¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $3,215 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:50
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 86¢ | $17 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 9.5¢ | $4 |
| 4d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 16¢ | $1 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 82¢ | $450 |
| 4d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $155 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 77¢ | $20 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 77¢ | $20 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $7 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $19 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $42 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $19 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $41 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 75¢ | $238 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 74¢ | $66 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 73¢ | $426 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 73¢ | $125 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $15 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $59 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $36 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $66 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $18 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $82 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $82 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $72 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $18 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $64 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $18 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $146 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $258 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $4 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $323 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 67¢ | $207 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $154 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $58 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $6 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $17 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $18 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $5 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $6 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $7 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $44 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $28 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $15 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 29¢ | $20 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 4.4¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 4.4¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 73¢ | $5 |