Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?
ActiveLiquidity $31.2K·Volume $27.1K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$3,734 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered98¢100¢at 11:49(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$31.2K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $3,734 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $3,734 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:49
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $24 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 97¢ | $193 |
| 2w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $39 |
| 5w ago | EatprayloveTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $37 |
| 5w ago | EatprayloveTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $12 |
| 8w ago | EatprayloveTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $1,903 |
| 11w ago | EatprayloveTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $1,795 |